Modi wave, myth and media: Just 90 seats for BJP?

In my previous article, I have predicted 170 odd seats for congress. Not many people believed my prediction. Some called it pro congress, some said it is out of reality, few people also said that you have been paid by 10 janpath to influence the neutral voters by your paid survey which should be thrown in dustbin. But after the end of 6th phase, congress is inching closer to 200 seats and bubble of manufactured modi wave is ready to burst on 16th May. I am totally agree that there is huge modi wave on ground but it's not a pro modi wave, it's an anti modi wave in which BJP is blowing itself. High polling percentage in minority dominated areas, kerala, west bengal, karnataka and north east is the conclusive evidence of it. BJP has also started realising that you can buy media and social media but you can't buy voters. As a result, BJP has reduced their seat assement in Uttar Pradesh by whooping 20%.Party which was making tall claims of winning 60 seats from the largest state of India, has now accpted that they are winning just 30 odd seats. Big leaders have accepted that party will lose many seats in awadh and purvanchal region due to wrong selection of candidates. If situation is bad in UP then it is becoming worst for BJP in Bihar with each passing day. BJP who said that there is tsunami for the party in UP and Bihar is now out of race on 31 seats and all their big leaders like Shatrughan Sinha, Rudy, Shanawaz Hussain and Kirti Azad are almost losing their seat and BJP would find itself extremely lucky if they able to secure even 5 seats in Bihar who send 40 MPs to Parliament. Similar case in UP, where Narendra Modi himself, Rajnath Singh, MM Joshi, Menka Gandhi, Varun Gandhi and Uma Bharti are feeling the heat and facing the toughest battle of their life. 

Congress is covering Rajasthan loss from Karnataka, Tamil Nadu loss from Bihar, Delhi-Haryana loss from Chattisgarh and Jharkhand. However, loss of 22 seats from Seemandhara may impact cong overall tally and party may end up around 180 seats. In fact, congress was in very bad shape in Uttrakhand and was struggling to open the account in hill state, has now making a stunning comeback. They are set to win Haridwar, Nainital and Almora while facing a close contest in Paudi Garhwal and Tihri seat. Even congress is looking all set to repeat the performance of 2004 and 2009 loksabha polls in BJP's strong baston Gujarat.Congress is well ahead on atleast 8 seats. Sabarkantha,Patan in North Gujarat.Anand,Chhota Udepur, Dahod in Central Gujarat.Valsad in South Gujarat, Rajkot,Amreli/Jamnagar in Saurashtra. With a little luck,congress can also carry Jamnagar,Kheda,Junagadh. Overall 8 seats are safe. Remaining a bonus!

Now let's analyse the congres internal survey which is predicting 140+ seats for congress. Congress' internal assessment gives the party a minimum of 43 seats in the south, 50 seats in 12 northern states, 20 seats in west and 25 seats from east and north-east. In my opinion, 20 seats are too conservative in west. 14 in Maharashtra, 8-12 in Gujarat, 8-12 in Madhya Pradesh, 4-5 in Chattisgarh, 5 in Rajasthan. Total: 43. Whiile, in south, internal survey of congress is looking upto to the mark. karnataka: 18, Kerala: 12-15, TN: 0-1, AP: 10.. south prediction is correct. In north, UP:20-25, Uttrakhand: 3-5.. J & K: 1-2, HP:2, Delhi: 1-2, Haryana:4, Punjab:10. If we talk about east and north east then Bihar: 5-8, Jharkhand: 3-4, Assam: 10, north east states: 7, orrissa: 7, wb: 4-6. Total:38.

Overall, congress may get around 175 seats alone. I can just laugh on those people who are predicting that congress will be restricted to two digits. While, it is other way around and BJP seems to be bundling out around 90 odd seats. There are around 30 states in India and if we take even 4 seats in each state by conservative approach then also congress will get 30*4=120 seats. It doesn't need a rocket science that even in a worst case scenario, congress will not get anything less than 130. Now, let's have a look on BJP's current position. Some surveys have predicting simple majority for NDA, while party president Rajnath Sinngh is claiming that they will win 300 seats by having existence on just 200 seats. Uttar Pradesh: 15, Bihar: 0-5, Delhi: 2-4, Haryana: 4, Punjab:0, Uttrakhand:1-2, Himachal Pradesh: 2, Jammu & Kashmir: 1, Maharashtra: 10, Gujarat: 16, Madhya Pradesh: 16, Rajasthan: 15, Karanataka: 5, Tamil Nadu: 0-1, Andhra Pradesh: 0, West Bengal: 0, Orrisa: 0, Assam: 1-2, 7 north east sisters: 0. Overall, BJP may end up at around 90 seats which will be party's worst ever performance in last 20 years.

UPA is set to make hat-trick

As Lok Sabha elections are approaching, the enthusiasm of political parties and pandits is on its peak. Whether modi wave will end 10-year drought of  BJP or will cong-led UPA be able to make hat-trick despite facing the huge anti-incumbency due to corruption and inflation. Which party will be most affected by AAP's arrival. What are the chances of third/fourth front capturing the 7 RCR?

I have conducted my own opinion poll which is absolutely neutral and not a paid one. According to the findings of our survey, the surprising picture is coming out and cong-led UPA is looking set to make hat-trick. While, BJP-led NDA will have to warm opposition bench yet again.

J and K----udhampur and ladakh(2)
HP---shimla and mandi(2)
uttarakhand--Nainital(1)
Punjab---7-8(even jaitly will lose...sad will only most probably carry seats for the nda)
Rajastan---4-5(ajmer,jhunjhunu,sikar,2 others from the eastern trbal and minority dominated belt...npp's weakening influence and vote katua factor has now made the locals realize that it all helped the bjp...so dalits, meenas and anti modi minorities will help us win some seats down there)
Gujarat---4-5(4 in central gujarat and 1-2 in north gujarat...valsad seat of south gujarat will witness some fight too)
Maharashtra---14(bjp-ss is fighting hard against each other in north maharashtra and mumbai region....we are ahead in western maharashtra as well)
Karnataka---16-18(we are ahead everywhere except mumbai karnataka where the bjp is slightly ahead)

Kerala---10-12(udf ahead evrywhere except some pockets)
tamil nadu---O-1(either in the west or in the south)
AP---9-12(nothing in seemandra while congress will get 9-12 in telengana.i am afraid if the tdp will benefit from the pro telengana vote division in seats like malkajgiri ,secunderabad and khammam)
Odisha---6-7(congress will retain back our southern odisha bastion and some other rural seats towards the north coast)
West Bengal---4-5 (malda dakshin,berhampur,murshidabad,roygunj and jangipur/malda uttar)
Assam---8-10(opposition is far far behind)
North east--6-7(2 in manipur,1-2 in meghalaya, 1 in mizoram and 2 in arunachal)
Bihar---3-4(sasaram, kishanganj,aurangabad/supaul/gopalganj/nawada)
Uttar pradesh---12-13(moradabad, rampur, baraily/saharanpur in west Up and rae bareli, amethi,unnao, pratapgarh,gonda and barabanki in central UP and one in bundhelkhand and faizabad, kushinagar, allahabad/phulpur/jaunpur/domariaganj /robertsganj in east UP)

Haryana---6-7(rohtak,kurukshetra,sirsa,faridabad,bhiwani,sonepat and panipat)
Delhi--1-2(east delhi and maybe new delhi)
Goa--1 (south goa with a reduced margin.)
MP--5-7(chindwara,guna, arun yadav's ,ajay singh's and kantilal from ratlam are sure seats)
Chattisgarh--3-4 bastar(karma's son),mahasamund(jogi),raigarh/kanker,korba/Sarguja)
Jharkhand---4
UTs--4-5