More than two-third of the UP has voted for its next government but question still remains that whose holi will be more colorful. Will BJP be able to play the saffron holi as claimed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his political rally? Or Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance will have a last laugh? Is Mayawati's BSP still in race? These all are common talking point in every street of the UP now a days. Here, Idhar Udhar comes with its deep analysis that where the pendulum will swing?
How the first two phases went?
SP-Congress alliance got an enormous success in getting 80% of the minority votes in Western UP and Ruhelkhand. Alliance become the automatic choice of minorities. Loksabha Constituencies like Saharanpur, Mooradabd, Rampur, Muzzafarnagar and Meerut went in BJP's pocket due to split in minority votes in 2014.
Another big factor which went in BJP's favour was consolidation of Jat votes to Modi after unfortunate riots of Muzzafarnagar. As per the ground reports, Jat didn't vote to BJP this time around as central government failed to manage the Jat protests for reservation peacefully, Military shoot dead few Jaat protests in Haryana after which Jaat decided to teach a lesson to BJP. Not much exictement seen in BJP's core voters also. As a result, turnout in BJP's bastons was low in comparison of high turnouts in Dalit and Muslim areas.
If majority of Jaats voted to their traditional party RLD then Jatav Dalits remained intact with Mayawati's BSP. Non jatav dalit votes got divided between BJP and Congress. BJP still remain the first choice of non yadav and not jaat OBCs. Infact, Modi and Shah duo relying heavily on forward castes and non yadav OBCs combination.
Alliance sweep is depending on making inroads to BJP's OBC votebank BJP was hoping for polarisation in first two phase but attempts of polarisation failed miserably. After first two phases, alliance had clear edge over BJP.
Third Phase
SP's traditional seats like, Itawah, Mainpuri and Kannauj went to polling in this phase. SP made complete sweep in 2012 assembly polls in their baston. After dispute in family, Akhilesh Yadav faced huge challenge in his home turf but Akhilesh's clean image and Congress vote base is saving the party from any damage. Sweep by SP expected this time around as well. Post polling of third phase, SP-Congress looks way ahead of BJP as former quite successfully retained its yadav muslim support base in third phase.
Fourth Phase
BJP's blunder to send empty train in drought affected area of Bundelkhand may prove very costly to the party. BJP looked out of contest in Bundelkhand region. Main contest was seen between alliance and BSP. Lower turnout in most of the constituencies in fourth phase also indicating absence of anti incumbency.
Fifth Phase
As per internal survery of RSS, BJP left far behind after first four phases of voting. As a result, BJP backed to its traditional politics with Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself taking a charge in playing communal card in India's largest state by bringing shamshan, Kabristan, Ramjan, Diwali, Pakistan, ISI into his campaign. Modi's desperation is clearly indicating the last attempt of polarising the remaining phases of the state. Sometimes speech in rallys also gives you a hint that which way the wind is blowing.
As per ground reports, BJP was quite successful in polarising some assembly seats of fifth phase. On the eve of sixth phase, BJP leaders are now chanting Burkha Burkha in the despiration of polarisation.
Damage has been done in first four phases to BJP. Their performance is expected to be far below the expectations. Can BJP sweep the purvanchal by playing communal card? It seems that BJP is getting success in polarising the purvanchal region of UP to the some extent but will it be good enough for saffronised party to make a comeback in Uttar Pradesh? Seems extremely difficult as BJP has to win 75 seats out of remaining 90 constituencies which will go to polling on 4th March and 8th March.
As of now, SP-Congress is looking set to provide an another huge blow to Modi after Delhi and Bihar. Maywati's BSP is not looking into race as no other voter is getting added to her jatav dalit votebase. While, BJP is back to its communal politics to repeat the performance of 2014 lok sabha polls in purvanchal region
How the first two phases went?
SP-Congress alliance got an enormous success in getting 80% of the minority votes in Western UP and Ruhelkhand. Alliance become the automatic choice of minorities. Loksabha Constituencies like Saharanpur, Mooradabd, Rampur, Muzzafarnagar and Meerut went in BJP's pocket due to split in minority votes in 2014.
Another big factor which went in BJP's favour was consolidation of Jat votes to Modi after unfortunate riots of Muzzafarnagar. As per the ground reports, Jat didn't vote to BJP this time around as central government failed to manage the Jat protests for reservation peacefully, Military shoot dead few Jaat protests in Haryana after which Jaat decided to teach a lesson to BJP. Not much exictement seen in BJP's core voters also. As a result, turnout in BJP's bastons was low in comparison of high turnouts in Dalit and Muslim areas.
If majority of Jaats voted to their traditional party RLD then Jatav Dalits remained intact with Mayawati's BSP. Non jatav dalit votes got divided between BJP and Congress. BJP still remain the first choice of non yadav and not jaat OBCs. Infact, Modi and Shah duo relying heavily on forward castes and non yadav OBCs combination.
Alliance sweep is depending on making inroads to BJP's OBC votebank BJP was hoping for polarisation in first two phase but attempts of polarisation failed miserably. After first two phases, alliance had clear edge over BJP.
Third Phase
SP's traditional seats like, Itawah, Mainpuri and Kannauj went to polling in this phase. SP made complete sweep in 2012 assembly polls in their baston. After dispute in family, Akhilesh Yadav faced huge challenge in his home turf but Akhilesh's clean image and Congress vote base is saving the party from any damage. Sweep by SP expected this time around as well. Post polling of third phase, SP-Congress looks way ahead of BJP as former quite successfully retained its yadav muslim support base in third phase.
Fourth Phase
BJP's blunder to send empty train in drought affected area of Bundelkhand may prove very costly to the party. BJP looked out of contest in Bundelkhand region. Main contest was seen between alliance and BSP. Lower turnout in most of the constituencies in fourth phase also indicating absence of anti incumbency.
Fifth Phase
As per internal survery of RSS, BJP left far behind after first four phases of voting. As a result, BJP backed to its traditional politics with Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself taking a charge in playing communal card in India's largest state by bringing shamshan, Kabristan, Ramjan, Diwali, Pakistan, ISI into his campaign. Modi's desperation is clearly indicating the last attempt of polarising the remaining phases of the state. Sometimes speech in rallys also gives you a hint that which way the wind is blowing.
As per ground reports, BJP was quite successful in polarising some assembly seats of fifth phase. On the eve of sixth phase, BJP leaders are now chanting Burkha Burkha in the despiration of polarisation.
Damage has been done in first four phases to BJP. Their performance is expected to be far below the expectations. Can BJP sweep the purvanchal by playing communal card? It seems that BJP is getting success in polarising the purvanchal region of UP to the some extent but will it be good enough for saffronised party to make a comeback in Uttar Pradesh? Seems extremely difficult as BJP has to win 75 seats out of remaining 90 constituencies which will go to polling on 4th March and 8th March.
As of now, SP-Congress is looking set to provide an another huge blow to Modi after Delhi and Bihar. Maywati's BSP is not looking into race as no other voter is getting added to her jatav dalit votebase. While, BJP is back to its communal politics to repeat the performance of 2014 lok sabha polls in purvanchal region
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