We have conducted our exit poll on each and every every constituency which has been went to poll upto 8th phase. Let us clear few things about our exit poll.
1. We have not taken any sample.
2. Our prediction is based on ground reports, caste equation and local issues.
3. Margin of error could be 7% in terms of seats.
4. Seat wise survey is more reliable than collecting some random sample in few constituencies.
Our exit poll results are totally different from the opinion polls conducted by several agencies like C-Voter, AC-Nielsen, CSDS and Hansa Research Group. According to initial ground reports, Modi's caste card has backfired him as upper castes and educated youth is appearing to be reluctant to vote for BJP. While, OBC and SC/ST vote bank is still intact with Mulayam, Mayawati, Lalu and Nitish in UP and Bihar. As per our findings UPA is heading towards simple majority by winning 259 seats and BJP-led NDA is struggling badly and heading towards most humiliated defeat in the last 20 years by bagging just 117 seats with saffron party struggling to reach three digit mark. Congress-led UPA is sweeping the states like Karnataka, Kerala, Assam, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttrakhand, Jammu & Kashmir, Goa and 7 North East states. On the other hand, BJP seems to be struggling in their strong bastions like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh. BJP who is making tall claims of winning at least 50 seats from UP, is now struggling to touch two digit mark in the biggest state of India. While, Maharashtra is witnessing nail biting contest between Congress-NCP and BJP-SS. Only states where BJP can hope for some gains are the small states like Delhi and Haryana.
1. We have not taken any sample.
2. Our prediction is based on ground reports, caste equation and local issues.
3. Margin of error could be 7% in terms of seats.
4. Seat wise survey is more reliable than collecting some random sample in few constituencies.
Our exit poll results are totally different from the opinion polls conducted by several agencies like C-Voter, AC-Nielsen, CSDS and Hansa Research Group. According to initial ground reports, Modi's caste card has backfired him as upper castes and educated youth is appearing to be reluctant to vote for BJP. While, OBC and SC/ST vote bank is still intact with Mulayam, Mayawati, Lalu and Nitish in UP and Bihar. As per our findings UPA is heading towards simple majority by winning 259 seats and BJP-led NDA is struggling badly and heading towards most humiliated defeat in the last 20 years by bagging just 117 seats with saffron party struggling to reach three digit mark. Congress-led UPA is sweeping the states like Karnataka, Kerala, Assam, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttrakhand, Jammu & Kashmir, Goa and 7 North East states. On the other hand, BJP seems to be struggling in their strong bastions like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh. BJP who is making tall claims of winning at least 50 seats from UP, is now struggling to touch two digit mark in the biggest state of India. While, Maharashtra is witnessing nail biting contest between Congress-NCP and BJP-SS. Only states where BJP can hope for some gains are the small states like Delhi and Haryana.
State
|
Total Seats polled till 8th
phase
|
BJP+
|
Cong+
|
Others
|
Comments
|
Uttar Pradesh
|
80
|
9
|
29
|
30
|
Congress and RLD alliance is winning Sharanpur, Ghaziabad, Amethi,
Raibareilly, Pratapgarh, Mooradabad, Rampur, Barabanki, Chandauli, Jaunpur, Mirzapur, Varanasi, Dumriyaganj, Kushinagar, Gonda, Unnav,
Dharauhra, Lucknow, Kanpur, Kanpur Dehat, Fulpur, Dumriyaganj, Khiri, , Aola,
Baghpat, Mathura, Fathepur Sikri,Faizabad. While, BJP is winning Meerut,
Bulandsher, Bareilly, Eta, Bijnore, Kaiserganj, Cairana, Nagina and Pilibhit.
While, SP and BSP sharing 42 remaining seats. Read the seats wise analysis of UP here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/no-modi-wave-in-up-just-10-seats-for.html
|
Bihar
|
40
|
4
|
32
|
4
|
Congress-RJD
alliance is winning Darbhanga, Siwan, Paschim Champaran, Purvi Champaran, Valmiki Nagar, Gopal Ganj, Madhubani, Vaishali, Jhanjharpur, Samastipur,
Muzzafarpur, Ujiyarpur, Supaul, Madhepura, Arariya, Kishanganj, Katihaar,
Sitamadhi, , Maharajganj, Saaran, Khagadiya, ,Sasaram, Aurangabad, Begusarai, Nawada,
Buxar, Hajipur, Patliputra, Patna Sahib, Bhagalpur. While, BJP is ahead in
Zamui, Sheohar, karakat, Khagariya and Gaya. Remaining 7 seats are going into
JDU favour. Read the seat wise analysis of Bihar here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/battle-ground-bihar-lau-wave-decimated.html
|
West Bengal
|
42
|
0
|
6
|
36
|
Congress is winning Uttar Malda, Dakshin Malda, Jangipur, Royganj, Behrampur and Murshidabad.
All the stars of BJP are losing their deposits in their respective seats.
Mamta is heading towards sweeping the state. Left is ahead in 9 seats only.
|
Seemandhra
|
23
|
6
|
2
|
15
|
Congress
is ahead in Aruku and Srikakulam. Remaining seats will be shared by YSRC and
TDP.
|
Telangana
|
17
|
0
|
11
|
6
|
Congress is ahead in Karimnagar, Nizamabad, Warangal, Khammam, Adilabad, Medak, Mahbubnagar, Rangareddy, Nalgonda, Sirpur and Chennur. MIM is winning Hyderabad. While, TRS is going to get 5 seats.
|
Maharashtra
|
48
|
25
|
23
|
Congress-NCP
is winning South Mumbai, South Cental Mumbai, North East Mumbai, North
Central Mumbai, Thane, Nashik, Pune, Sholapur, Nanded, Kalyan, Bhivandi,
Shirdi, Baramati, Bhandara, Nandurbar, Yavtamal,Vardha, Latur, Satara, Madha,
Akola, Ratnagiri, Kolhapur. Other 25 seats are going to NDA kitty.
|
|
Madhya Pradesh
|
29
|
15
|
14
|
0
|
Congress
is clearly ahead in Guna, Chindwara, Khandwa, Ratlam, Rewa, Satna, Ujjain,
Dewas, Dhar, Mandasour and Jabalpur. Remaining 17 seats will got to BJP’s
kitty. Read Madhya Pradesh's detailed analysis here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/madhya-pradesh-exit-poll-bjp-ahead-but.html
|
Rajasthan
|
25
|
14
|
6
|
5
|
Congress
is winning Ajmer, Jaipur Gramin, Alwar, Dholpur, Dausa and Tonk. BSP winning
Silchar, Kota seems to be heading towards AAP and three independents are also
winning. Rest 14 seats are for BJP which is a huge setback for the saffron
party which was claiming to bag all the 25 seats. Read seat wise projection of Rajasthan here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/bjp-has-swept-rajasthan-assembly-polls.html
|
Gujarat
|
26
|
15
|
11
|
Congress
is looking well set to win Kheda, Anand, Sabarkantha, Jamnagar, Valsad,
Amreli, Patan, Bhavnagar, Dahod, Chhota Udaipur, Junagarh. While, BJP is
winning just 15 seats in Modi’s home state. Read Gujarat's full analysis here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/exit-poll-no-modi-wave-in-gujarat-and.html
|
|
Chattisgarh
|
11
|
5
|
6
|
0
|
Durg,
Raipur, Bastar, Sarguja, Mahasumund and Bilaspur are going to Congress.
While, ruling party is looking ahead on just 5 seats.
|
Jharkhand
|
14
|
3
|
8
|
3
|
Congress-JMM-RJD alliance is sweeping the
state with 40% votes.
|
Orrisa
|
21
|
1
|
7
|
13
|
Congress
is strong in South Orrisa and winning Behrampur, Kalahandi, Koraput,
Rayagada, Gajapati, Boudh, Nuapada. BJP is struggling to open its account and
BJD is winning 13 seats.
|
Delhi
|
7
|
3
|
3
|
1
|
Congress
has slight edge in New Delhi, East Delhi and Chandni Chowk. Rakhi Birla may
be the lone candidate who can represent Delhi from AAP. BJP is looking strong
in South Delhi and has slight edge in remaining 2 seats. Read Delhi's seat wise analysis here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/no-sign-of-modi-wave-in-north-india-bjp.html
|
Haryana
|
10
|
3
|
6
|
1
|
Congress
is winning Rohtak, Sirsa, Bhivani, Sonipat, Kurukshetra and Karnal. BJP is
clearly ahead in Faridabad, Gurgaon and Ambala. HJC chief Kuldeep Bishnoi is
losing to INLD in Hissar.
|
Punjab
|
13
|
1
|
10
|
2
|
Congress
is ahead in Patiala, Bathinda, Gurdaspur, Amritsar, Hoshiarpur, Anand Saheb,
Jalandhar, Fairdkot, Firojpur and Khadoor Sahib. Newly formed party AAP is
clearly ahead in Ludhiana and Sangrur. While, SAD’s lone seat in the state is
coming from Fategarh Sahib.
|
Himachal
Pradesh
|
4
|
1
|
3
|
0
|
Congress
is winning Mandi, Shimla and Hamirpur. While, former Chief Minister Shanta
Kumar is winning Kangra for BJP.
|
Uttrakhand
|
5
|
2
|
3
|
0
|
Congress
has advantage in Haridwar, Almora and Nainital. While, Tihri and Podi Garhwal
are seems to be heading towards saffron party. Read Uttrakhand's seat wise analysis here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/no-sign-of-modi-wave-in-north-india-bjp.html
|
Jammu
& Kashmir
|
6
|
1
|
4
|
1
|
Congress-NC
is winning Udhampur, Srinagar, Baramulla and Leh Ladhak. While, Anantnang and
Jammu are going to PDP and BJP resepectively.
|
Assam
|
14
|
2
|
10
|
2
|
Congress
is winning Karimganj, Silchar, Autonomus District, Dhubri, Kokrajhar, Barpeta,
Guwahati, Mangaldoi. Kaliabor, Jorhat. While, BJP is ahead in Tejpur and
Dibugarh. Remaining two seats are going to AIUDF and
AGP. Read seat wise projection of Assam here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/exit-poll-congress-sweeping-north-east.html
|
7 North
East States
|
11
|
7
|
4
|
Congress
is winning both seats of Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalya, Manipur and lone seat
of Mizoram. While, left bagging both the seats of Tripura. NPP winning
Nagaland seat and in Sikkim where Congress and BJP are alliance are failed to
pose any threat to the regional party of Sikkim.
|
||
Tamil
Nadu
|
39
|
5
|
1
|
33
|
Congress
may win Sivaganga and BJP may open its account this time around by winning
Kanyakumari. Rest 33 seats will be shared by AIDMK and DMK with Jayalalitha
winning majority of those seats.
|
|
Karnataka
|
28
|
2
|
24
|
2
|
Congress
is clearly ahead in Haveri, Dharwad, Uttar kanada,Dakshin Kannada, Koppal, Bidar, Bellary, Bijapur, ,Uduppi
Chikmanglur, Gulbarga, Davengre. Tumkur, Mandya, Mysore, Chamarajnagar,
Bangalore Rural, Bangalore North, Bangalore South, Bangalore Central,
Chikkodi ,Kolar, Belgaum, Chikballapur
and Bagalkot, While, BJP is winning Raichur,
Chitradurga and . Dev Goda\s
JDS is ahead in Hassan and Shimoga. Read full and deepest analysis of Karnataka here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/exit-poll-congress-led-upa-heading.html
|
|
Kerala
|
20
|
0
|
15
|
5
|
Congress
is winning Karsaraood, Kannur, Wayanand, Kozhikode, Malappuram, Ponnani,
Thrissur, Chalakudy, Emakulam, Kottayam, Alappuzha, Mavellikara, Pathanam
thitta, kollam and Thiruvannathpuram. While LDF winning Vadakara, Alathur, Idukki, Attingal and
Palakkad.
|
|
Goa
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
Congress
winning both the seats of Goa i.e North Goa and South Goa due to the minority
polarisation in favor of congress.
|
||
Union Territories
|
6
|
0
|
6
|
0
|
Conress
is sweeping the UTs i.s Andaman & Nicobar, Lakshdweep, Chandigarh, Dadar
& Nagar Haweli, Daman & Diu and Pondicherry. Read seat wise analysis of UTs here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/clean-sweep-for-congress-in-union.html
|
|
Total
|
510
|
117
|
259
|
150
|
||
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Fantastic!!! I like this
ReplyDeleteToo Good! (y)
ReplyDeleteToo good to be true!
Deletewelcome Anamika Ji
DeleteSuperlike
ReplyDeletethanx:)
DeleteNice analysis. Superb calculation. Only one tiny tiny mistake, which the author will correct on May 16th. He had mistakenly, unknowingly interchanged BJP and Congress, which he will correct on May 16th.
ReplyDeleteoh! seriously man.. how can these figures be interchanged in Kerala, Karnataka, WB, Orrisa, Bihar, Punjab, Assam, North East where BJP is losing deposit in most of the seats.
ReplyDeleteIn Kerala, either Congress will loose badly or it will be a 60-40 ratio seat sharing with Communist having the upper hand. In Karnataka it should be 60-40 in favor of Congress, in Punjab it should be 60-40 in favor of BJP and in Assam it should be Congress. Anyway, Congress tally would not surpass even 100, whereas BJP should reach 240+ with some dragging.
Deleteu urself admitted cong edge in krntk, kerala and assam over bjp.. while, bjp is contesting just 3 seats in Punjab.. Congress worst possible scenario is 130 seats.. i just know the simple fact and mathematics that we have existence in every state and there are 30 states.. Even if we win 4 seats from each and every state(I know that v r not winning nything from TN and 7-8 small states r there wid 1 or 2 seats but there r big states lyk up, bihar, mh also where v r doing pretty well).. 30*40=120 seats + 5-6 UTs = 125 seats + 15 from UP - 4 + 8 from Bihar - 4 + 15 from MH - 4 + 18 from Krntk - 4 + 10 from kerala - 4 + 10 from Telangana - 4 + 6 from WB - 4 + 10 from Assam - 4 + 10 from Punjab - 4 + 5 from Haryana - 4 + 8 from gujarat - 4 + 8 from MP - 4 + 7 from Orrisa - 4 + 7 from NE sisters - 4 = 210 seats - 30 for margin of error = 180 seats is our best possible scenario.. now u can tell me d states where i m overestimating cong..
DeleteMr. Vijayabasker.....I am sitting here in Punjab...In amritsar...Trust me...BJP-SAD alliance is not even getting 1 seat...the anger against the SAD is a lot....i am from Amritsar..where Mr. Jaitley contested....believe me....he's not even coming second.....he's bound to be at third place....this is ground reality....you can enquire from anyone you know in Amritsar...
Delete60:40 in favour of SAD-BJP in Punjab? They're not going to win anything in Punjab. Congress was in fight with AAP in Punjab, not BJP or Akali Dal. Please don't state such bullshit 'facts' which you believe are true because the Media said so. This so called Modi wave created by Corporate Media Houses is nowhere in India, let alone Punjab.
Deletewhy bjp will loose deposit. if congress can win after such a bad handling of state afaair for 5 years...then it indicates voters have no power or no iq.
DeleteRelax Man.............dont be so nervous........be ready for unexpected :)
ReplyDeleteTrust me....that 1 seat Divye joshi is giving to BJP + in Punjab...i doubt it...i dont see that coming....
ReplyDeleteThe modi wave could not reach Punjab because of The SAD...its a very known fact here in Punjab...I wonder how can anyone give 60:40 bias
I hope u prove ri8 on 16th but SAD cud win Fategarh sahib
DeleteActually its not because of Akali votes that SAD stands a chance to win Fatehgarh Sahib. The SAD-BJP candidate, Kulwant Singh, has way too much money to spend. His war chest was of Rs. 50 crores while the Congress candidate spent nowhere near that. Akali's have a chance to win this seat, but Kulwant Singh is an outsider based out of Mohali which falls in Anandpur Sahib. Ground reports say that local SAD cadre in Fatehgarh Sahib did not support him wholeheartedly. Let's hope for the best!
DeleteI have a question... who is the "we" who did the exit polling? How many people did you survey?
ReplyDeleteTook ground reports from every constituency.. have conducted this with Rajan Alexander who runs famous blog wid 1.9 million hits
DeleteI am very skeptical about the prediction because I noticed on another article, you gave Mumbai North East seat to UPA... now, I live in this constituency, and Sanjay Dina Patil of NCP has been the worst performing MP in entire Maharashtra, and is expected to finish 3rd (with either Kirit Somaiya or Medha Patkar winning the seat, with Somaiya having an edge).
DeleteHence, I am curious to know, exactly how many people do you ask? What was the sample size?
Arey yar, priya dutt, deora, kamath nd one another cong mp winning.. I have mistakenly wrote that seat.. Soumya is winning from there
DeleteI will become your biggest fan if this happens . BJP needs to be taught lesson in UP and Bihar .
ReplyDeletecontinue day dreaming :)
ReplyDeleteday dreams always come true:)
DeleteAll exit polls differs from your's in a big way!!!!! lost hope?
ReplyDeletePred is not on the basis of hopes, It's on the basis of ground reality. I have already exposed these xit polls http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/bookies-brokers-trp-and-exit-polls-how.html
ReplyDeleteI really hope this cums to be true,But I seriously doubt exit poll on TV on of the channel shows AAP with 2-4 seats while another shows them getting more seats then congress
ReplyDeleteYou can read our big expose on Exit Polls..
DeleteYour analysis/research is more nearer to the reality than the biased and pid pro-bjp exit polls and surveys thanks and congrats for this simple yet very impressive blog of yours. I have been browsing all posts/articles of your blog since last few days.. Interesting and pragmatic ....
ReplyDeletethe pre-polls surveys were biasedly anti-congress for being sponsoired/paid by BJP, How can Exit pols by same agenchies/channels be neutral / impartial.
Earlier 2004 and 2009 exit polls also proved wrong. Whole India is not Gujarat there are may local factors/local issues apar from regional parties which upset the genralisation of pan-india categorisation of probable results.
The drawback of opinion polls and exit polls for being small sample size is that they fail to judge the small under-currents from district to district and village to village. How can sammple of few thousand gauge the sentiments of many lakhs when there are diference even within families. Tilt in just 2-3 big contituency states may upstage the BJP's apple-cart.
thanx:)
Deleteजाने क्या होगा रामा रे :D
ReplyDeleteGood you came into limelight this way. Cheap tricks......theoretically awesome, practically Bullshit..............If the same brains were used for constructive calculations and realistic estimates then this would have been a wonderful piece of work.......well anyways target met.....mission accomplished.....
ReplyDeleteHi cheap floks..Rajan Alexander and Divye..what happend tp your day dreams..U wanted bjp to be worst performance in 20 year..Not is it congs worst in whole its history 62+ years...Great people of india know ur cong stooges and rejects cong...your cheap tectics won't make ur blog high ranker soon..
ReplyDeleteThis is a nice informative blog in which you have discussed about exit & opinion polls India. Thanks for sharing such impressive and useful information with us.
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