Friday, May 9, 2014

Worst and best: Congress 130-185, BJP 99-165

BJP's best possible scenario is 165 seats if they get that much seats from the following states:-

1. BJP ruled states - 75

2. Uttar Pradesh - 40

3. Bihar - 10

4. Maharashtra - 20

5. Karnataka - 10

6. Other small states - 10

BJP won't be touching 166th seat but they may fall to below 120 in every probability. Let me make this very clear that BJP need something more than tsunami to win that many seats from Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan, Goa and Maharashtra.

Now, let's have a look on BJP's worst possible scenario. UP - 10, Bihar - 5, Karnataka - 5, MP - 18, Gujarat - 15, Rajasthan - 10, Chattisgarh - 6, Jharkhand - 2, Uttrakhand - 1, Himachal Pradesh - 1, Delhi - 4, Haryana - 4, Maharashtra - 14 = 95 seats.



Computation of BJP's Net Gain/Net Loss
State
2009
2014 Expected Tally
Net Gain
Net Loss
Uttar Pradesh
10
10


Bihar
12
5

7
Uttrakhand
0
2
2

Himachal Pradesh
3
1

2
Delhi
0
4
4

Jammu & Kashmir
1
1


Haryana
0
3
3

Punjab
1
0

1
Jharkhand
8
1

7
West Bengal
1
0

1
Orrisa
0
2
2

Gujarat
15
15


Madhya Pradesh
16
18
2

Rajasthan
4
10
6

Chattisgarh
10
6

4
Assam
4
1

3
7 North East sisters
0
0


Maharashtra
9
14
5

Goa
1
1


Karnataka
19
5

14

Kerala
0
0



Tamil Nadu
0
1
1

7
Andhra Pradesh
0
0



Union Territories
3
0

3

Total
116
99
25
42
-17

If we take a look on Congress prospective then 130 is the worst possible scenario for Congress. There is around 30 states and even if we take minimum 4 seats from each state then also Congress is reaching 120 + 6 UTs = 126 seats. 126 + UP 15 - 4 + Bihar 8 - 4 + WB 6 - 4 + Kerala 11 - 4 + Karnataka 20 - 4 + AP 11-4 + MP 11 - 4 + Gujarat 11 -4 + Rajasthan 6 -4 + Assam 10 - 4 + Orrisa 7 -4 + MH 14 - 4 + Punjab 10 - 4 + Haryana 5 -4 = 215 seats - 30 seats for margin of error = 185 seats. Therefore, 185 seats is the best possible scenario for Congress.

Computation of Net loss/Net Gain of Congress
State
2009
2014 Expected Tally
Net Gain
Net Loss
Uttar Pradesh
22
25
3

Bihar
2
8
6

Uttrakhand
5
3

2
Himachal Pradesh
1
3
2

Delhi
7
2

5
Jammu & Kashmir
1
2
1

Haryana
9
5

4
Punjab
8
10
2

Jharkhand
1
4
3

West Bengal
6
6


Orrisa
7
7


Gujarat
11
11


Madhya Pradesh
12
11

1
Rajasthan
20
6

14
Chattisgarh
1
4
3

Assam
7
10
3

7 North East sisters
7
7


Maharashtra
18
13
5

Goa
1
1


Karnataka
6
20
14

Kerala
11
11


Tamil Nadu
8
1

7
Andhra Pradesh
33
11

22
Union Territories
5
6
1

Total
206
184
38
60
-22

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20 comments:

  1. goswamikeshavMay 9, 2014 at 10:49 AM

    FEEL U.P.A MAY LEAD IN TELLY

    ReplyDelete
  2. UnknownMay 9, 2014 at 12:11 PM

    Very nice, Divye ji.. UPA III will definitely form next government!

    ReplyDelete
  3. UnknownMay 9, 2014 at 1:15 PM

    You have lost it and no doubt you have zero understanding of politics.. Btw keep loving mother italia..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Divye JoshiMay 10, 2014 at 12:39 AM

      get a lyf.. u and u modi can go to Pakistan

      Delete
    2. UnknownMay 10, 2014 at 3:21 AM

      You guys are dum enough to beleive MODI will be PM..
      seriously guys .....

      Delete
  4. AnonymousMay 9, 2014 at 9:38 PM

    This was always on the card. God only knows what made BJP and their supporters think that they will come back to power.

    ReplyDelete
  5. UnknownMay 10, 2014 at 3:20 AM

    Sirji .. Abki baar PHIR UPA sarkarrr...

    ReplyDelete
  6. UnknownMay 10, 2014 at 3:27 AM

    I hope BHAJAPA gets crushed in UP and BIHAR ..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Divye JoshiMay 10, 2014 at 3:31 AM

      they have been crushed in Bihar already. While, they have existence on just 50 seats in UP.. they need something more than tsunami to win 40 seats out of 50 in UP..

      Delete
  7. UnknownMay 10, 2014 at 4:44 AM

    I think third front gov. Come in power of out side support congress

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Divye JoshiMay 10, 2014 at 4:57 AM

      only if cong get less than 140 which seems impossible as of now..

      Delete
  8. priyaranjanMay 10, 2014 at 10:43 PM

    Only Chutiya like DiVya Joshi can support Kangress"Desh Drohi" party...

    ReplyDelete
  9. priyaranjanMay 10, 2014 at 10:45 PM

    BJP will get 260+ and Kangress "Desh Drohi" party will not get more than 90...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Divye JoshiMay 11, 2014 at 1:13 AM

      abuses won't help u nd ur party.. it just shows ur frustration. How will BJP win 260+ by having existence on just 200 seats...?

      Delete
    2. priyaranjanMay 11, 2014 at 5:47 AM

      All Indian frusted with current Kangress gov....seems you don't know anything about Indian politics...you are a blind Kangress supporter..shame on you..

      Delete
    3. Divye JoshiMay 11, 2014 at 6:00 AM

      u know a damm about nything.. tell me 4m where bjp vl get 166th seat? 4m kerala, wb, nepal, pak, sl, bangladesh, china?

      Delete
    4. priyaranjanMay 11, 2014 at 7:23 AM

      Ghanta! Tell your Mata Rome and her son "PAPPU" pack her bag and go back to Italy...on May 16th..You have shit knowledge about Indian politics....Congress will get vote from Uganda,Somaliya.....hahahah Kangressi Loser...

      Delete
  10. Divye JoshiMay 11, 2014 at 7:52 AM

    Congress worst possible scenario is 130 seats.. i just know the simple fact and mathematics that we have existence in every state and there are 30 states.. Even if we win 4 seats from each and every state(I know that v r not winning nything from TN and 7-8 small states r there wid 1 or 2 seats but there r big states lyk up, bihar, mh also where v r doing pretty well).. 30*40=120 seats + 5-6 UTs = 125 seats + 15 from UP - 4 + 8 from Bihar - 4 + 15 from MH - 4 + 18 from Krntk - 4 + 10 from kerala - 4 + 10 from Telangana - 4 + 6 from WB - 4 + 10 from Assam - 4 + 10 from Punjab - 4 + 5 from Haryana - 4 + 8 from gujarat - 4 + 8 from MP - 4 + 7 from Orrisa - 4 + 7 from NE sisters - 4 = 210 seats - 30 for margin of error = 180 seats is our best possible scenario.. now u can tell me d states where i m overestimating cong.. oh! i forgot, it's waste of tym to argue wid u.. u can keep leaving in fool paradise world

    ReplyDelete
  11. elae don't worrieeeeeeeee, be happyyyyyyMay 11, 2014 at 12:24 PM

    Rajasthan is concerned 10% less turn out reveals modi wave losses strength as well as vasundra raje charisma is invisible ,bsp,npp,nuzmp spoiled congress vote in assembly election where absent in rest of the 20 seats.secularism based minorities ,sc/st &jaats wave well polarized towards congress ,according to my opinion congress will retain last time seat with +/-2 with out fail

    ReplyDelete

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