Predict and win! Be a psephologist

Predict and Win! We are inviting all our readers to send their prediction on my email id - @divvejoshi@gmail.com. The person who will get it right on 16th may with +-20 seats, name of that person will be published on the description of our blog.

I am posting few of such predictions here.

Bharat's prediction

NDA - 278

UPA - 104

Others - 161

Sahil's prediction

NDA - 266
UPA - 116
Others - 160

Swamy's prediction
NDA - 264
UPA - 120
Others - 159

Trivedi Ji's prediction
NDA - 307

Manoj Kedia's prediction

NDA - 250

Congress - 75

Gopal's prediction
BJP - 200
Congress - 90

Tarique S. Chunawala's prediction
NDA -  205-224
UPA - 155

Manish Champaneri ‏

270-Congress ( UPA ) 151-Bjp (.NDA ) 122-other

Mathew Simon's prediction
NDA - 276
UPA - 91

Jithu Thomas prediction
J and K----udhampur and ladakh(2)

HP---shimla and mandi(2)

uttarakhand--Nainital(1)

Punjab---7-8(even jaitly will lose...sad will only most probably carry seats for the nda)

Rajastan---4-5(ajmer,jhunjhunu,sikar,2 others from the eastern trbal and minority dominated belt...npp's weakening influence and vote katua factor has now made the locals realize that it all helped the bjp...so dalits, meenas and anti modi minorities will help us win some seats down there)

Gujarat---4-5(4 in central gujarat and 1-2 in north gujarat...valsad seat of south gujarat will witness some fight too)

Maharashtra---14(bjp-ss is fighting hard against each other in north maharashtra and mumbai region....we are 
ahead in western maharashtra as well)

Karnataka---16-18(we are ahead everywhere except mumbai karnataka where the bjp is slightly ahead)

Kerala---10-12(udf ahead evrywhere except some pockets)

tamil nadu---O-1(either in the west or in the south)

AP---9-12(nothing in seemandra while congress will get 9-12 in telengana.i am afraid if the tdp will benefit from the pro telengana vote division in seats like malkajgiri ,secunderabad and khammam)

Odisha---6-7(congress will retain back our southern odisha bastion and some other rural seats towards the north coast)

West Bengal---4-5 (malda dakshin,berhampur,murshidabad,roygunj and jangipur/malda uttar)

Assam---8-10(opposition is far far behind)

North east--6-7(2 in manipur,1-2 in meghalaya, 1 in mizoram and 2 in arunachal)
Bihar---3-4(sasaram, kishanganj,aurangabad/supaul/gopalganj/nawada)
Uttar pradesh---12-13(moradabad, rampur, baraily/saharanpur in west Up and rae bareli, amethi,unnao, pratapgarh,gonda and barabanki in central UP and one in bundhelkhand and faizabad, kushinagar, allahabad/phulpur/jaunpur/domariaganj /robertsganj in east UP)

Haryana---6-7(rohtak,kurukshetra,sirsa,faridabad,bhiwani,sonepat and panipat)

Delhi--1-2(east delhi and maybe new delhi)

Goa--1 (south goa with a reduced margin.)

MP--5-7(chindwara,guna, arun yadav's ,ajay singh's and kantilal from ratlam are sure seats)

Chattisgarh--3-4 bastar(karma's son),mahasamund(jogi),raigarh/kanker,korba/Sarguja)

Jharkhand---4

UTs--4-5

Nitya Nand Singh's prediction
I will write my prediction state wise...UP - 45-50,BIH- 19-24,GUJ- 22-25,RAJ - 21-23,MP- 23-26,CHG- 8-10, HAR- 6-7,PUN-2,HP- 3,JK - 2,JHAR- 9-12,ODISHA- 5,WB- 2,ASSAM-5-6,ARUN- 2,ANDRA-4,TN-2,KAR-14,MH-19-21..

Simon, Doha, Qatar

State /UT	Total seats	BJP +	Congress +
Arunachal Pradesh	2	-	2
Andaman	1	1	-
Assam	14	6	6
Bihar	40	23	14
Chandigarh	1	1	-
Delhi	7	6	-
Goa	2	1	1
Haryana	10	8	2
Jharkhand	14	10	4
Jammu Kashmir	6	1	3
Karnataka	28	15	09
Kerala	20	-	10
Lakshadeep	1	-	1
Madhya pradesh	29	27	2
Maharashtra	48	32	16
Manipur	2	-	2
Meghalaya	2	-	1
Mizoram	1	-	1
Nagaland	1	-	-
Orissa	21	6	1
Rajasthan	25	23	1
Sikkim	1	-	-
Tripura	2	-	-
Uttar Pradesh	80	46	4
Tamil Nadu	39	5	-
Pondicherry	1	-	-
Telengana	17	2	4
Punjab	13	8	3
Guajarat	26	24	2
West Bengal	42	3	2
Daman Diu	1	1	-
Andhra	25	17	0
Dader Haveli	1	1	-
Himachal Pradesh	4	4	-
UttaraKhand	5	5	-
TOTAL	543	276	91

Others : 176

                                          Vijay Francis    

		UPA	NDA	Others
Seemandhra	25	1	12	12
Telengana	17	9	2	6
Arunachal	2	2	0	0
Assam	14	10	2	2
Bihar	40	28	8	4
Goa	2	1	1	0
Gujarat	26	7	19	0
Haryana	10	4	4	2
HP	4	3	1	0
J&K	6	4	1	1
Karnataka	28	18	8	2
Kerala	20	12	0	8
MP	29	8	21	0
Maharashtra	48	22	26	0
Manipur	2	1	0	1
Meghalaya	2	2	0	0
Mizoram	1	1	0	0
Nagaland	1	0	0	1
Orissa	21	5	4	12
Punjab	13	9	3	1
Rajasthan	25	7	17	1
Sikkim	1	0	0	1
TN + Pondicherry	40	4	5	31
Tripura	2	0	0	2
UP	80	15	38	27
WB	42	5	3	34
Chattisgarh	11	4	6	1
Jharkand	14	6	5	3
Uttarkhand	5	2	3	0
A&N	1	1	0	0
Chandigarh	1	1	0	0
D&N	1	0	1	0
D&D	1	1	0	0
Delhi	7	1	3	3
Laks	1	1	0	0
Total	543	195	193	155

Vijaya Ragwan

State /UT	Total seats	BJP +	Congress +	Others
Arunachal Pradesh	2	0	2	0
Andaman	1	1	0	0
Assam	14	1	13	0
Bihar	40	8	24	8
Chandigarh	1	0	1	0
Delhi	7	6	0	1
Goa	2	1	1	0
Haryana	10	7	3	0
Jharkhand	14	9	5	0
Jammu Kashmir	6	1	3	2
Karnataka	28	11	15	2
Kerala	20	0	14	6
Lakshadeep	1	0	1	0
Madhya pradesh	29	20	9	0
Maharashtra	48	27	18	3
Manipur	2	0	2	0
Meghalaya	2	0	2	0
Mizoram	1	0	1	0
Nagaland	1	0	0	1
Orissa	21	2	3	16
Rajasthan	25	20	5	0
Sikkim	1	0	0	1
Tripura	2	0	0	2
Uttar Pradesh	80	23	14	43
Tamil Nadu	39	4	0	35
Pondicherry	1	0	1	0
Telengana	17	2	7	8
Punjab	13	5	8	0
Guajarat	26	21	5	0
West Bengal	42	2	5	35
Daman Diu	1	1	0	0
Andhra	25	15	0	10
Dader Haveli	1	1	-	0
Himachal Pradesh	4	2	2	0
UttaraKhand	5	3	2	0
Chattisgarh	11	7	4	0
TOTAL	543	200	170	173

Srikanth GK Hedge

State /UT	Total seats	BJP +	Congress +
Arunachal Pradesh	2	1	1
Andaman	1	1	-
Assam	14	3	10
Bihar	40	20	20
Chandigarh	1	1	-
Delhi	7	4	1
Goa	2	1	1
Haryana	10	5	5
Jharkhand	14	8	4
Jammu Kashmir	6	1	3
Karnataka	28	12	15
Kerala	20	-	10
Lakshadeep	1	-	1
Madhya pradesh	29	20	9
Maharashtra	48	25	23
Manipur	2	-	2
Meghalaya	2	-	1
Mizoram	1	-	1
Nagaland	1	-	-
Orissa	21	4	4
Rajasthan	25	16	6
Sikkim	1	-	-
Tripura	2	-	-
Uttar Pradesh	80	38	15
Tamil Nadu	39	5	1
Pondicherry	1	-	-
Telengana	17	2	5
Punjab	13	4	9
Guajarat	26	21	5
West Bengal	42	3	3
Daman Diu	1	1	-
Andhra	25	13	0
Dader Haveli	1	1	-
Himachal Pradesh	4	2	2
UttaraKhand	5	4	1
TOTAL	543	213	152

Joseph Devassy

Chances of a BJP gov forming under Shri Narendra Modi.

Gujarat -25,Rajasthan-25,MP-25,Bihar-30,UP-50,AP-15,Karnataka-20,Maharashtra-30,Orissa-10,Punjab-10,Chattisgarh-10,Jharkhand-10,Delhi-05,Uttarakhand-05,Haryana-05

These are the required no of seats the BJP would require if they would want to form their own gov after 16 Mayunder the leadership of Narendra Modi. One look and it looks practically impossible. I am not a full time psehologist but I do undertake it as a part time habit and hobby for time pass.The reason I feel it is impossible is because it is highly improbable any party would win close to 95% of the seats in a state. In the post I would only elaborate on the seats that the BJP I think would lose in these stronghold areas

01) Gujarat
Sabarkantha, Banaskantha, Anand, Patan, Dahod, Also expect tough fights in Panchmahal, Amreli , Kheda, Chota Udaipur, Rajkot and Surendranagar. So tally at most 20 or 21.

02 ) Rajasthan
Karul Dholpur, Jaipur Rural, Barmer, Sikar . Also expect tough fights in Jhunjhunu, Nagaur, Udaipur , Bhartpur, Dausa. So tally utmost at most 20 or 21.

03) MP
Guna, Sidhi , Balaghat , Gwalior , Dhar, Satna, Chindwara . Also expect tough fights in Morena , Rewa ,Bhind , Mandla , Sagar , Damoh, Shahdol. So tally at most 22 or 23.

04) Chattisgarh
Surguja , Korba , Kanker , Bastar , Bilaspur. Also expect a tough fight in Mahasamund, Rajnandgaon.So tally at most 05 or 06. 

05) Delhi
East Delhi , West Delhi. Also expect tough fight in North East Delhi, Chandni Chowk and New Delhi. So tally at most 02 or 03

06) Karnataka 
Apart from Haveri , Bellary , Raichur , Shimoga , Chitradurga , Chikodi and one Bangalore Seat for BJP. Its looks like 20 seats plus for the Congress. So tally atmost 07 or 08 seats

07) Punjab
Apart from Sangrur. Ludhiana , Bhathinda, Firozpur , Amritsar and Chandigarh , Congress expected to win atleast 08 seats plus . So tally atmost 04 or 05 seats


08) Bihar
Apart from Zamui, Sheohar , Karakat , Buxar , Hajipur , Gaya , Purvi Champaran, Paschmi Champaran, Khagariya , Patna Sahib for BJP, and very tough fights in 04 other seats It looks like 20 seats plus for RJD/Cong combine and 08 for JDU. So tally at most 13 or 14 seats

09) Uttarakhand
Haridwar ,Almora and tough fight on Nainital seat. So tally at most 02 or 03 seats

10) Haryana
Rohtak, Bhivani, Sonepat and tough fights in Sirsa ,Karnal , Faridabad. So tally at most 06 seats

11) UP
Meerut , Sahranpur ,Mooradabad, Rampur , Dharauhra , Gonda. , Phulpur , Jaunpur , Amethi , Rae Barelli , Kushinagar, Baghpat, Mathura and 30 seats totalling to SP n BSP .So BJP tally atmost 35 or 36 seats

12) AP- Seemandhra
Araku, Srikakulam, & 11 seats to the YSRCP. So tally at most 12 or 13 seats.

13) AP- Telangana
Karimnagar, Nizamabad, Warangal, Khammam, Adilabad, Rangareddy, Nalgonda & TRS 06 seats. So Tally at most 03 or 04 seats.

14) Orissa
Behrampur, Kalhandi,Kohraput, Gajapati, & BJD winning 12 seats. So tally atmost 04 or 05.

15) Maharashtra
South Mumbai, South Cental Mumbai, , North Central Mumbai, Thane, Nashik, Pune, Sholapur, Nanded, Kalyan, Bhivandi, Baramati, Bhandara, , Yavtamal, Latur, Satara, Madha, Kolhapur.and tough fights in 06 more seats. So tally at most 28 or 29 seats.

16) Assam 
Apart from Tezpur, Barpeta n Dibrugarh, Congress expected to win atleast 09 seats here. So tally 02 or 03 seats

17) Jharkhand
NDA tally at most 07 or 08 here

18) HP 
NDA tally at most 01 or 02 here

19) JK
NDA tally at most 02 here.

20) Kerala
Congress expected to win 08 seats plus tough fights in 05 more. Tally 0 for NDA here

21)Tamil Nadu 
Apart from Coimbatore , and 06 seats Villupurma, Salem,Dharmapuri,Erode, Virudhnagar and Erode of allies ,. DMK n AIADMK expected to share 33 seats in ratio of 2:1 for AIADMK. Tally atmost 03 or 04 seats .

So my Friends again I repeat even tho I may fall flat on my face repeatedly

For BJP- Best come best 180 seats. Worst come worst 160 seats. Average mean 175

For Congress- Best come best 160 seats. Worst come worst 140 seats. Average mean 150

For NDA allies - Best come best 45 seats. Worst come worst 35 seats. Average mean 40

For UPA allies- Best come best 25 seats. Worst come worst 15 seats. Average mean 20

For Third Front- Best come best 55 seats. Worst come worst 45 seats. Average mean 50

For All others- Best come best 120 seats. Worst come worst 100 seats. Average mean 110

			Cong	BJP	Others	UPAAllies	NDAAllies	3rdFront	TTL		Needed
AP		42	9	2	15(YRSCP)	1(MIM)	15(TDP)		11		20
Arunachal		2	2	0					2
		0							0
Assam		14	10	3	1(AUDF)	0			13		5
		0							0
Bihar		40	7	12	11(JDU)	9(RJD)	1(LJP)		19		30
Goa		2	1	1					2
Gujarat		26	7	19					26		25
Haryana		10	4	4			2(HJC)		8		5
HP		4	2	1			1(IND)		3
JK		6	2	2		2(NC)			4
Karnataka		28	18	8				2(JDS)	26		20
Kerala		20	11	0		1(IUML)		8(LEFT)	11
MP		29	7	22					29		25
Maharashtra		48	14	17	1(AAP)	4(NCP)	12(SS,RPI SSS)		31		30
Manipur		2	2	0					2
Meghalaya		2	1	0			1(NPP)		1
Mizoram		1	1	0					1
Nagaland		1	1	0					1
Orissa		21	6	2	13(BJD)				8		5
Punjab		13	8	3			2(SAD)		11		10
Rajasthan		25	4	19	2(IND)				23		25
Sikkim		1	0	0	1(SDF)				0
TN		39	0	2	24(AIADMK)		4(DMDK, PMK,MDMK)	09(DMK)	2
UP		80	9	36	13(BSP)	3(RLD)	2(AD)	17(SP)	45		45
WB		42	5	1	25(TMC)			11(LEFT)	6
Chattisgarh		11	5	6					11		10
Jharkhand		14	6	8					14		10
Uttarakand		5	2	3					5		5
Andaman		1	0	0	1(IND)				0
CDG		1	1	0					1
Daman/Dadra		2	1	1					2
Delhi		7	2	3	2(AAP)				5		5
Laks/Pudu		2	1		1(NRC)				1
Tripura		2	0					2(LEFT)	0
		543	149	175	110	20	40	49	324		275
Range			140-160	160-180	100-120	15-25	35-45	45-55