Battle Ground Bihar: Lalu wave decimated manufactured Modi wave in Bihar, huge gains for Congress, predicts Exit Poll

Paid opinion polls conducted by various agencies seems to be having no impact what so ever in the battle ground of Bihar as Lalu wave has decimated manufactured Modi wave in Bihar. However, opinion poll agencies have already started face saving exercise by showing upper hand to Congress-RJD alliance over BJP-LJD alliance. BBC reports also predicting 26+ seats to UPA in Bihar. All the big leaders of BJP like Shatrughan Sinha, Kirti Azad, Rudi and Shanawaz Hussain are biting the dust. While, LJP supremo Ram Vilas Paswan and his son Chirag Paswan, who is also the actor in Bombay film industry, are looking all set to face humiliating defeat from their respective constituencies. IB report and BJP internal survey is also suggesting that NDA is in the contest on just 11 seats of Bihar. If ground reports are to be believed then there is tactical understand between UPA and JDU to ensure BJP's humiliation in Bihar. More than Lalu, it's Congress who is gaining big by bagging whopping 1o seats out of 12 they are contesting and having slight edge over Shatrughan in Patna Sahib. RJD is winning 20 seats and NCP's Tarique Anwar is also winning the lone seat which his party is contesting. While, BJP and JDU are winning just 4 and 2 seats respectively.

What factors are scripting the tsunami of Congress-RJD alliance?

1.			Split in BJP-JDU alliance has divided the votes of both these parties which has directly benefiting the alliance of Cong-RJD.
2.			YM i.e yadav-muslim combination is back with RJD due to the sympathy wave with lalu as he went to jail in chara ghotala. Projection of Narendra Modi by BJP as their Prime Ministerial candidate also helped UPA to consolidate the minority votes into their favor. Lalu’s image of anti communal politics is also very good in Bihar since he arrested BJP’s lauh purush Lal Krishna Advani when his rath yatra entered Bihar.
3.		1	In 2009, votes of RJD and Congress splitted but Lalu Prasad Yadav didn’t show any arrogance what so ever this time around in giving 1-2 extra seats to Congress. The 6-8% vote of Congress is working wonders for UPA.

State	BJP+	Congress+	JDU	Close seats	Comment
Darbhanga		1			Kirti Azad of BJP is clearly losing against RJD.
Madhubani		1			RJD has edge over BJP and JDU.
Jhanjharpur		1			RJD is winning Jhanjharpur seat.
Samastipur		1			Congress has winning edge over BJP and JDU in Samastipur.
Zamui	1				BJP is set to win Zamui.
Muzzafarpur		1			Congress seems to be winning Muzzafarpur by beating BJP.
Ujiyarpur		1			RJD has clear advantage over BJP and JDU.
Suapul		1			Congress candidate Ranjeeta Ranjan, who is also a wife of bahubali Pappu Yadav, is clearly ahead of BJP and JDU.

Madhepura		1			RJD’s Pappu Yadav is making a big upset by defeating JDU president Sharad Yadav.
Arariya		1			RJD is ahead of BJP and JDU.
Kishanganj		1			Cake Walk for Congress in Kishanganj which has 55-60% muslim population after JDU’s candidate writhdrawn his name to stop the split in secular votes.
Sheohar	1				BJP has winning edege in Sheohar.
Katihaar		1			NCP’s Tariq Anwar is winning this seat quite comfortably.
Sitamadhi		1			Again, RJD has clear edge over BJP and JDU.
Maharajganj		1			RJD has upper hand in Maharajganj constituency.
Karakat	1				BJP is looking ahead of RJD and JDU.
Saaran		1			Former Bihar Chief Minister Rabri Devi is making a winning debut against former Union Minister Rudy.
Sasaram		1			It may not be a cakewalk for lok sabha speaker Meera Kumar but she will win with a slight lesser margin.
Aurangabad		1			Congress is winning this seat hands down.

Khagariya		1				RJD has clear clear edge over LJP and JDU in Khagariya.
Begusarai		1				RJD is winning Begusarai seat.
Nawada		1				RJD has winning edge over its opponents in Nawada.
Buxar		1				RJD is winning battle of Buxar against BJP and JDU.
Hajipur		1				LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan is looking all set to lose for the second time in a row as he seems to be the victim of Modi wave and biting a dust against Congress candidate. Hajipur has majority of Muslim Yadav population which makes Paswan’s road to parliament very difficult.
Patliputra		1				In a fight of chacha-bhatitji, latter seems to be having upper hand as Lalu’s daughter Meesa Yadav is looking all set to make a winning debut by defeating ex RJD leader Ram Kripal Yadav, who is now in BJP.

Patna Sahib				1	Very close contest between Shatrughan Sinha and Congress. It’s a touch and go scenario with Congress having slight edge due to the high population of muslim and yadav. JDU has also fielded bhumihar candidate to ensure BJP’s defeat in the capital city of Bihar.
Bhagalpur		1			BJP’s muslim face Shanawaz Hussain is biting the dust in Bhagalpur as JDU is all set to win Bhagalpur.
Gaya	1				Cake Walk seems to be on cards for BJP.
Purnea			1		JDU is looking ahead of Congress and BJP in Purnia.
Samastipura		1			Congress is winning Samastipura hands down.
Valimiki Nagar		1			Congress is looking ahead of opponents in Valmiki Nagar.

Munger			1		Congress has clear advantage over BJP and JDU in Nalanda
Jahanabad		1			Congress is way ahead of opponents in Gopal Ganj
Paschim Champaran		1			RJD has winning edge over BJP and JDU.
Purvi Champaran				1	Too close to call with BJP having slight edge over RJD.
Vaishali		1			RJD is clearly ahead of opponents in Vaishali lok sabha constituency.
Siwan		1			RJD facing no real threat from its opponents.
Banka		1			RJD has cleae advantage in Banka.

Nalanda		1			Congress is winning Nalanda hands down.
Gopal Ganj		1			Congress is looking ahead of opponents in Gopal Ganj.

Total

40

4

32

2

2