Saturday, May 3, 2014

No Modi wave in UP: Just 10 seats for BJP and Congress emerges single largest party

All the opinion polls are predicting BJP's sweep in Uttar Pradesh but party is struggling to reach two digit mark and all their big leaders including Modi himself are losing their seats. While, congress is emerging single largest party in the state with 25 seats. Here is the seat wise analysis of UP.



1. Meerut: Triangular contest between BJP, BSP and SP. BJP banking on division of minority votes but congress and AAP has made inroads into hindu's votes also.
Result: It's 50-50 between BJP and BSP with BJP having slight advantage

2. Muzzafarnagar: It's a straight contest between BJP and BSP. The saffron party claiming that all hindu votes went to them but dalits seems to be stilll intact with BSP.
Result: BSP winning the seats but BJP giving tough fight

3. Saharanpur:congress Imran Masud's hate speech on modi has made him hero overnight amongst the minorities.

Result: congress winning the seat

4. Bijnore: Straight contest between BJP and SP. Muzaffarnagar villages from where riots started falls in bijnore constituency. Thus, jaats voted for BJP. RLD's high profile candidate Jaya Prada is on 4th spot. SP hoping all the muslim votes.

Result: BJP has clear edge

5. Bulendsher: Kalyan Singh factor helping BJP with SP giving some fight due to Guddu Pandit.

Result: BJP is ahead

6. Gautam Budh Nagar: BJP swept Khurja assembly seat. While, BSP is strong in Jewar and Dadri. Nodia votes has been divided amongst BJP and AAP. With so much division in hindu votes, Sp is looking clear favorite to win the seat as this seat has around 3.5 lakh muslims..

Result: SP winning the seat.

7. Ghaziabad: Former army chief  VK Singh will face humiliating defeat and he is out of race. Punjab, Jaats and Brahmins have voted for Raj Babbar and muslim votes went to AAP's Shazia Ilmi.

Result: Congress winning the seat.

8. Agra: BJP is struggling to retain its seat as DM combination working for BSP.

Result: BSP has edge.

9. Hathras: Rld who won in 2009 is not even in contest. BSP and BJP once again clashing with each other to become victorious.

Result: BSP looking ahead.

10. Jhansi: Triangular contest between Pradeep Jain, Uma Bharti and SP. But anti incumbency against Jain and Modi factor working in Uma's favor.

Result: Uma Bharti has clear edge.

11. Banda: It's a BSP strong bastion but BJP hoping to give strong fight.

Result: BSP looking ahead.

12. Mooradabad: Triangular contest between Congress, BJP and SP. BJP could scrap through only if SP splits more than 30% muslim votes which seems unlikely in this highly polarised polls of west up.

Result: Begum Noorbano of congress has an edge.

13.Rampur: Congress and SP are in straight contest but Begum Noor Bano's son looking ahead as muslims got divided on in urban but rural muslim voted for congress.

Result: Congress winning the seat.

14. Barelliy: Congress feeling the heat and may not be able to retain its seat. In 2009, muslims got polarised to congress as Taukir Raja supported congress but news is coming that ansaris have voted for SP and BJP's heavyweight Santosh Gangwar could once again regain his seat.

Result: BJP has an edge with congress not far behind.

15. Aola. Congress lost this seat by just 7000 votes in 2009 and there is huge anti incumbency against BJP due to Menka Gandhi who left the seat.

Result: Congress winning the seat.

16. Khiri: Bilateral contest between Congress sitting MP and SP. As cong has alone muslim candidate, so they could retain the seat.

Result: Congress has slight advantage.

17. Dharauhra: Congress Jitin Prasad winning hands down as non jatav dalits, brahmins and muslims have voted in numbers for him.

Result: Congress retaining the seat.

18. Pratapgarh: BJP left this seat for Apna dal and congress won't find difficult to retain this seat.

Result: Congress is clearly ahead.

19. Barabanki: PL Puniya has an advantage due to his image of being grounded and down to the earth.

Result: Congress retaining the seat.

20. Gonda: Beni babu has support of all the castes and religions and looking ahead of  SP.

Result: Congress retaining the seat.

21. Baharaich: Sonia Gandhi rally had just 2000 people and this is one those few seats which congress is loosing.

Result: 50-50 between SP and BSP.

22. Lucknow: Brahmins, Pahadis and Ansaris have voted for Rita Bahuguna Joshi which has left BJP's President Rajnath Singh in rude shock.

Result: Rita has emerged as silent killer and winning the seat.

23. Kanpur: Straight contest between Shri Prakash Jaiswal and Murali Manohar Joshi but dissent amongst BJP workers is not helping Joshi's cause.

Result: Congress retaining the seat.

24. Allahabad: Congress fielded former BSP leader who has good base in urban area but SP Rewati Raman Singh looking set for hat-trick.

Result: SP retaining the seat.

25. Fulpur: It's a seat of Nehru Ji and Mohd Kaif is alone muslim candidate which has given advantage to congress.

Result: Congress regaining its traditional seat.

26.Varanasi: Straight contest between Narendra Modi and Ajay Rai. Congress candidate has huge support of his bhumiar community and 3.5 lakh muslims are also voting for Congress.

Result: Congress has slight edge.

27. Mirzapur: BJP left this seat for Apna Dal. Congress has clear advantage on this seat. BJP claimed that BJP will be benefited in UP and Bihar with Modi's candidature in Varanasi but Modi factor is not working even in the neighboring seats of Kashi.

Result: Congress winning the seat.

28. Unnav: Anu Tondon won from 3.5 lakh votes in 2009 and she is winning by 30000 votes even if you combine the votes of SP, BSP and BJP. Dalits, Muslims and Brahmins have voted for her.

Result: Congress retaining the seat.

29. Pilibhit: Menka Gandhi facing huge anti incumbency but she asked votes in the name of modi and not on his work.

Result: BJP retaining the seat.

30. Sultanpur: Varun Gandhi looking on 3rd spot. DM factor working for BSP. While, congress hoping to make some surge in muslim votes.

Result: BSP has an edge.

31. Gorakhpur: Cake Walk for Yogi Adityanath.

Result: BJP winning the seat.

32. Jaunpur: Bhojpuri star Ravi Kishan is in straight contest with BSP.

Result: Congress looking ahead.

33. Amethi: Smriti Irani and Kumar Vishwas are going to lose deposit against Rahul Gandhi.

Result: Congress retaining the seat.

34. Raibareilly: Cake walk for Sonia Gandhi.

Result: Congress retaining the seat.

35. Shravasti:Congress is finding difficult to retain its seat.

Result: SP has an edge.

36. Balrampur: Congress feeling the heat and SP looking ahead.

Result: SP has advantage.

37. Chandauli: Triangular contest between 30-year-old congress candidate, SP and BSP. Congress candidate has done pad yatra of whole constituency.

Result: Congress has an edge.

38. Firozabad: SP is looking miles ahead of its opponents and Ram Gopal Yadav's son is set to go to parliament for the first time.

Result: SP winning the seat.

39. Mainpuri: Cake walk for Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Result: SP retaining the seat.

40. Kanauj: Cake walk for Dimple Yadav.

Result: SP retaining the seat.

41. Badayun: SP strong bastion and Dharmendra yadav is going to 16th lok sabha.

Result: SP retaining the seat.

42. Sambhal: Triangular contest between SP, BSP and congress.

Result: SP is looking ahead.

43: Ajamgarh: Cake walk for Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Result: SP winning the seat.

44: Kanpur Dehat: Congress is looking favorite to clinch this seat.

Result: Congress winning the seat.

45. Cairana: Straight contest between BJP's Hukum Singh and RLD's Kartar Singh Bhadana.

Result: BJP has an edge.

46.Nagina: Triangular contest between BJP, SP and BSP.

Result: BJP looks ahead.

47. Kushinagar: Union Minister RPN Singh is looking ahead of his opponents.

Result: Congress retaining the seat.

48. Baghpat: 38% Jaats have voted cent percent to Ajit Singh.

Result: RLD retaining the seat.

49. Mathura: Straight contest between Jayanth Chaudhary and Hema Malini.

Result: RLD retaining the seat.

50. Fathepur Sikri. Amar Singh seems to be going to loksabha for the first time.

Result: RLD winning the seat.

51. Tundla: BSP could scrap through yet again.

Result: BSP retaining the seat.

52.Etah: Kalyan Singh's son can win this seat for BJP.

Result: BJP winning the seat.

53. Aligarh: BSP, BJP and congress having triangular contest.

Result: BSPis looking ahead.

54.Shajahnpur: It's a reserve seat and BSP and SP are clashing with each other.

Result: 50-50 for BSP and SP

55. Sitapur: Triangular contest between Congress, SP and BSP.

Result; Congress has an edge.

56. Basti: Two big parties of UP are battling hard for this seat.

Result: SP has clear advantage.

57.Kaiserganj: Again, the fight is between SP and BSP.

Result: SP has an edge.

58. Jalaun: Straight contest between SP and BSP in this Bundelkhand seat.

Result: BSP winning the seat.

59. Hamirpur: BSP and SP in tight contest.

Result: BSP has slight edge.

60. Robertsganj: SP has an edge over BSP.

Result: SP winning the seat.

61. Amroha: BSP and SP are in straight contest

Result: SP winning the seat.

62. Balia: BJP and congress have failed to make any impact.

Result: SP hasn an edge.

63.Ghazipur: BSP and SP are in tough contest.

Result: BSP winning the seat.

64. Ghosi: BSP appears to be ahead of SP.

Result: SP winning the seat.

65. Salempur: Again, BSP and SP are in contest.

Result: BSP winning the seat.

66: Kaushambi: SP and BSP are clashing with each other.

Result: SP has an edge.

67. Sant Kabir Nagar: Congress and BJP are no major players here as well.

Result: BSP is looking ahead.

68.Mohanlal Ganj: SP and BSP are in race.

Result: BSP winning the seat.

69. Dumriaganj: BJP fielded congress rebellion and sitting MP Jagdambika Pal which has caused dissent amongst party workers and congress has clear advantage.

Result: Congress winning the seat.

70. Bhadohi: SP and BSP are in close contest.

Result: SP has an slight edge.

71.Machlisahar: BSP and SP are in contention.

Result: BSP has advantage.

72. Hardoi: SP's Naresh Agarwal has a decent impact here. SP is in contest with BJP.

Result: SP winning the seat.

73. Kaiserganj:SP MP had joined BJP but SP still in race.

Result: BJP has an edge.

74: Maharaj Ganj: BSP has an advantage over arch rivals SP.

Result: BSP winning the seat.

75. Deoria: BJP's heavyweight Kalraj Mishra finding himself in spot of bother as SP looking ahead in the race of 16th lok sabha polls.

Result: SP winning the seat.

76. Faizabad: Brahmin and kshatriyas votes are with Congress Sitting MP and state president Nirmal Khatri. While, muslim votes will decide the faith of Congress and SP's Mitresen's Yadav. BJP is not even in race in Ram Nagri.

77. Bansgaon: SP and BSP are clashing with each other.

Result: BSP winning the seat.

78. Lal Ganj: Scenario is same like Bansgaon.

Result: BSP winning the seat.

79. Ghosi: SP and BSP are in race.

Result: SP winning the seat.

80.Etawah: It's a strong bastion of SP and it's looks unconquerable for other parties.

Result: SP winning the seat.

4 comments:

  1. Even though I would like Modi to loose Varanasi, predicting Ajay Rai defeating Modi seem to bit exagerated.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Road show of RG reflecting some under current for Ajay Rai

      Delete
  2. where is undercurrent ...73 for BJP+...No stop such wierd predictions..cong agent

    ReplyDelete

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