If Modi-led BJP is hoping to reach 200 mark then it's because of north India because party has virtually no existence in South, East and North East. Will BJP be able to sweep this hindi-punjabi belt in Modi wave or will congress prevent BJP yet again to score something big. I have already analysed each and every seat of Uttar Pradesh. http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/no-modi-wave-in-up-just-10-seats-for.htmlhttp://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/no-modi-wave-in-up-just-10-seats-for.html . I am analysing seat wise scenario of Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Uttrakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir in this article.According to our deepest study, Congress+is winning 29 seats. BJP is just being able to reach two digit mark. While, AAP making considerabkle gains by bagging 5 seats in North India.
|
Delhi/Constituency
|
BJP
|
Cong
|
AAP
|
To Close to Call
|
Comments
|
|
New
Delhi
|
|
|
|
1
|
It's a straight contest between Congress
Ajay Makan and Meenakshi Lekhi.
Congress has edge. |
|
East
Delhi
|
|
|
|
1
|
Sandeep Dixit is facing a tough battle
from AAP's Rajgopal Gandhi. Congress has edge.
|
|
Chandni
Chowk
|
|
|
|
1
|
Triangular contest between Kapil Sibbal,
Ashutosh and Harshvardhan. Division in Muslim votes will help Harshvardhan
but if Muslims goes to Sibbal then with Punjabi + Dalit + Muslim combination,
congress heavyweight and union minister will easily scrap through.
Result: Congress has slight edge. |
|
North-East
|
|
|
|
1
|
Straight contest between BJP and AAP. AAP has slight advantage.
|
|
North-West
|
|
|
|
1
|
AP and BJP battling hard in this seat. BJP
is looking ahead.
|
|
South
|
1
|
|
|
|
Congress was wiped out in MCD polls. BJP
and AAP are in straight contest. BJP winning the seat.
|
|
West
Delhi
|
|
|
1
|
|
AAP's candidate is looking ahead of his
other opponents. AAP winning the seat.
|
|
Total
|
1
|
|
1
|
5
|
|
|
Haryana/ Constituency
|
BJP
|
Cong
|
AAP
|
INLD
|
To Close to Call
|
Comments
|
|
Roktak
|
|
1
|
|
|
|
Cakewalk for Deependra Hooda.
Congress retaining the seat |
|
Ambala
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
Anti incumbency against Congress sitting
MP sheilja who is in Rajya Sabha now, is proving costly for Congress
candidate. However, there is division in anti Congress votes but still BJP
looking seat to clinch this seat. BJP winning the seat.
|
|
Gurgaon
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
INLD muslim candidate has polarised hindu
votes in the favor if BJP's Indrajeet Singh. AAP's heavyweight Yogendra Yadav
is losing this seat badly. BJP winning the seat.
|
|
Sirsa
|
|
1
|
|
|
|
Straight contest between Congress and
INLD. Congress winning the seat.
|
|
Bhivani
|
|
1
|
|
|
|
Shruti Chaudhary's main rival is campaigning
for her and she is looking seat to retain her seat. Congress has clear edge.
|
|
Sonepat Sonipat
|
|
1
|
|
|
|
Ex-BJP MLP and all his supporters joined
congress, makes things easy for Congress.
Congress winning the seat.
|
|
Kurukshetra
|
|
|
|
1
|
|
Triangular contest between Naveen Jindal,
BJP and INLD and Jindal seems to be struggling this time around. INLD winning
the seat.
|
|
Hissar
|
|
|
|
1
|
|
HJC chief Kuldeep Bishnoi is loosing his
own seat and Modi wave seems to be not working for BJP's ally. INLD winning
the seat.
|
|
Karnal
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
Bi-lateral contest between Congress
and BJP. 50-50 between BJP and Congress.
|
|
Faridabad
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
BJP is looking head but you can't write
off Avtar Singh Bhadana. This Congress MP is famous for changing his seat if
he sees himself losing. BJP has slight advantage.
|
|
Total
|
2
|
4
|
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
Punjab/Chandigarh Constituency
|
BJP-SAD
|
Cong/UPA
|
AAP
|
To Close to Call
|
Comments
|
|
Patiala
|
|
1
|
|
|
NDA is not even in contest as Congress is
in direct contest with AAP. Congress retaining the seat.
|
|
Ludhiana
|
|
|
1
|
|
Straight contest between AAP and
Congress. AAP winning the seat.
|
|
Jalandhar
|
|
1
|
|
|
Straight contest between Congress and SAD.
Congress winning the seat.
|
|
Hoshiarpur
|
|
1
|
|
|
It's a strong bastion of Congress and BJP is
seems to be failing to pose any threat. Congress retaining the seat.
|
|
Gurdaspur
|
|
1
|
|
|
Triangular contest between Congress, AAP
and BJP. Congress winning the seat.
|
|
Bathinda
|
|
1
|
|
|
Straight contest between UPA and NDA. SAD's
fort is looking set to collapse. Badal's nephew looking clearly ahead in 5
assembly seats. Manpreet Badal winning
the seat.
|
|
Sangrur
|
|
1
|
|
|
AAP's Bhagwat Maan is in direct contest
with Congress. Congress winning the
seat.
|
|
Amritsar
|
|
1
|
|
|
In this VIP seat, BJP's leader of
opposition in Rajya Sabha Arun Jaitley is heading towards humiliating defeat
and Congress Amrinder Singh is in direct contest with AAP. Congress winning the seat.
|
|
Anandpur Sahib
|
|
1
|
|
|
Direct contest between Congress and AAP.
Congress Ambika Soni making a stunning debut and winning the seat for party. |
|
Fategarh Sahib
|
|
1
|
|
|
Straight contest between Congress and SAD.
Congress winning the seat. |
|
Faridkot
|
|
1
|
|
|
Congress and SAD are in direct contest.
Congress winning the seat.
|
|
Firozpur
|
|
|
|
1
|
Congress is looking
ahead of other parties. Congress
winning the seat.
|
|
Khadoor Sahib
|
|
1
|
|
|
Bi-lateral contest
between Congress and SAD. Congress winning the seat.
|
|
Chandigarh
|
|
|
|
1
|
BJP's Kiron Kher is losing her deposit.
Congress Pawan Bansal is facing a tough battle against AAP's Gul Panag.
Congress has slight advantage.
|
|
Total
|
|
11
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
Uttarkhand/
Constituency
|
BJP
|
Cong
|
AAP
|
To Close to Call
|
Comments
|
|
Haridwar
|
|
1
|
|
|
BJP's heavyweight Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank
is in Brahmin which has polarised Thakur votes which are 60% in the favor of
Harish Rawat's wife. Congress retaining the seat.
|
|
Nainital
|
|
1
|
|
|
Congress is ahead of its opponents.
Congress retaining the seat.
|
|
Tihri
|
1
|
|
|
|
Vijay Bahuguna's son Saket Bahuguna is in
direct contest with BJP's sitting MP against whom Saket lost the by-polls
when his father was CM of the state. BJP winning the seat.
|
|
Podi-Garhwal
|
|
|
|
1
|
BJP is ahead but Harak Singh Rawat of
Congress is still very much in a race you can't wite him off. BJP has slight
edge.
|
|
Almora
|
|
1
|
|
|
Congress Pradip Tamta is looking all set
to retain his seat. Congress retaining the seat.
|
|
Total
|
1
|
3
|
|
1
|
|
|
Himachal/
Constituency
|
BJP
|
Cong
|
AAP
|
To Close to Call
|
Comments
|
|
Shimla
|
|
1
|
|
|
Congress is in direct
contest with BJP. Congress winning the seat.
|
|
Hamipur
|
|
|
|
1
|
With AAP damaging BJP's vote bank, going
gets tough for BJP's Anurag Thakur. Congress has edge.
|
|
Kangra
|
1
|
|
|
|
BJP's Shanta Kumar
facing no serious competition. BJP winning the seat.
|
|
Mandi
|
|
1
|
|
|
"Jiski Mandi, Uska
Desh"."Win Mandi and rule the nation". Whoever wins Mandi,
forms govt. in centre. HImachal Pradesh CM's wife is looking all set to
repeat the result of by-polls. Congress retaining the seat.
|
|
Total
|
1
|
2
|
|
1
|
|
|
J&K/
Constituency
|
BJP
|
Cong-NC
|
PDP
|
To Close to Call
|
Comments
|
|
Srinagar
|
|
1
|
|
|
NC chief Farooqh Abdulla facing no serious
challenge. NC retaining the seat.
|
|
Jammu
|
1
|
|
|
|
BJP is looking seat to win this seat if
Panther's party didn't make inroads into Hindu votes. BJP winning the seat.
|
|
Udhampur
|
|
1
|
|
|
Congress heavyweight Gulam Nabi Azad is
miles ahead of his opponents. BJP's rebellion has ensured that his old party
contesting for saving the deposit. Congress winning the seat.
|
|
Anantnag
|
|
|
1
|
|
PDP chief Mahbuba Mufti winning this seat
comfortably. PDP winning the seat.
|
|
Baramulla
|
|
|
|
1
|
Baramulla: Direct contest between NC and
PDP. NC has slight advantage.
|
|
Total
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
|
|
North Region/
State
|
Total
|
BJP/ NDA
|
Cong-UPA
|
PDP
|
AAP
|
INLD
|
To Close to Call
|
|
Delhi
|
7
|
1
|
|
|
1
|
|
5
|
|
Haryana
|
10
|
2
|
4
|
|
|
2
|
2
|
|
Punjab/Chandigarh
|
14
|
|
11
|
|
1
|
|
2
|
|
Uttarakhand
|
5
|
1
|
3
|
|
|
|
1
|
|
Himachal Pradesh
|
4
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
|
1
|
|
J&K
|
5
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
|
|
1
|
|
Total
|
44
|
6
|
22
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
12
|
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