What is the secret behind Congress confidence despite Exit Polls predicting rout?

Even though all the Exit Polls are predicting rout for Congress and simple majority for BJP-led NDA but still Congress top leadership is looking extremely confident. The party's internal survey predicts 193 seats for UPA. You can read the  internal survey of Congress in detail here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/congress-internal-survey-predicts-193.html

Dainik Jagran reports that Congress war room expecting 120-140 seats for the party. While, Sonia Gandhi said yesterday that she is not bothered about Exit Polls and party has started back room talks with regional parties like TMC and YSRC which shares similar ideology. The UPA chairman has also expressed confidence of UPA 3. In IBN debate, Congress leader Rashid Alvi said that they are not thinking of playing a role of constructing opposition but party is set to form a government in centre for the third time in a row.

Let's have a look on the seats where BJP has serious existence

BJP ruled states - 90

UP - 45

MH - 25

Bihar - 20

karnataka - 20

Delhi - 7

Haryana - 8

Other states - 10

BJP has existence on just 225 seats.How can they win 230+ as all the Exit Polls predicting?

BJP has existence on just 45 seats of UP because 20-25 seats r mslm dominated.10-15 seats are strong bastions of SP, BSP and Congress. 6-7 seats are of Mulayam Singh's relatives. 2 seats for Mulayam, Dimple Yadav, Dharmendra Yadav, Ram Gopal Yadav's son, son of Mulalyam Singh's sautan. Congress - Amethi, Raibareilly, Dharauhra, Kushinagar, Unnav. BSP - bundelkhand and some seats in west up and east.

 BJP has existence on just 225 seats. Their best ever tally is 182 when they won 57 seats from UP, got good numbers from north east. They had alliance in Bihar, Haryana, Jharkhand, Orrisa, West Bengal, Assam and Andhra Pradesh. If they want to win even 165 seats then they need wave, tsunami, aandhi and neelam toofan together.

BJP's best possible scenario is 165 seats if they get that much seats from the following states:-

1. BJP ruled states - 75

2. Uttar Pradesh - 40

3. Bihar - 10

4. Maharashtra - 20

5. Karnataka - 10

6. Other small states - 10

BJP won't be touching 166th seat but they may fall to below 120 in every probability. Let me make this very clear that BJP need something more than tsunami to win that many seats from Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan, Goa and Maharashtra.

Now, let's have a look on BJP's worst possible scenario. UP - 10, Bihar - 5, Karnataka - 5, MP - 18, Gujarat - 15, Rajasthan - 10, Chattisgarh - 6, Jharkhand - 2, Uttrakhand - 1, Himachal Pradesh - 1, Delhi - 4, Haryana - 4, Maharashtra - 14 = 95 seats.

If we take a look on Congress prospective then 130 is the worst possible scenario for Congress. There is around 30 states and even if we take minimum 4 seats from each state then also Congress is reaching 120 + 6 UTs = 126 seats. 126 + UP 15 - 4 + Bihar 8 - 4 + WB 6 - 4 + Kerala 11 - 4 + Karnataka 20 - 4 + AP 11-4 + MP 11 - 4 + Gujarat 11 -4 + Rajasthan 6 -4 + Assam 10 - 4 + Orrisa 7 -4 + MH 14 - 4 + Punjab 10 - 4 + Haryana 5 -4 = 215 seats - 30 seats for margin of error = 185 seats. Therefore, 185 seats is the best possible scenario for Congress.