Tuesday, May 20, 2014

How division in minority votes helped BJP to win 20+ extra seats in UP

Many factors played a big role in BJP's landslide victory in India's biggest state Uttar Pradesh but biggest factor is not Modi wave, but it is the division in muslim votes which helped BJP to win that many seats. BJP has won 71 seats and its ally Apna Dal also bagged two seats. While, Samajwadi Party(SP) and Congress won just 5 and 2 seats respectively out of 80 seats in UP. As we promised earlier, we are going to explain you how many seats BJP won extra due to division of secular votes. Interestingly, except Jatavs and Yadavs, hindus voted more unitedly this time around than muslim community. Our Exit Poll of UP has fallen flat and division of votes is one of the main reasons behind this as we assumed that Mulsims have voted to winning candidate against BJP to stop Modi. We are proving with 20 seats data that how BJP benefited greatly by division of secular votes. We have just taken those seats where muslims candidates were contesting. There are certainly many more seats where no muslim candidate was contesting but minorities still failed to trace the winning candidate against BJP.



1. Amroha:-
BJP - 528880
BSP, AAP and SP  fielded muslim candidates - These three parties got 536250 votes. Had muslim not got divided, BJP would have lost this seat.

2. Balia:-
BJP - 359758
SP + Quami Ekta Dal - 384267 votes. Afzal Ansari got 163943 muslim votes which resulted in unexpected loss of former Primier Minister Chandrashekhar's son Neeraj Shekhar.
http://eciresults.nic.in/ConstituencywiseS2472.htm?ac=72

3. Bijnore:-
BJP - 486913
SP - 281139
BSP - 230124
Like many other constituencies, SP fielded muslim candidate Shanawaz Rana to ensure Dalit + Muslim combination doesn't work in favour of BSP. BJP once again took advantage of it.
http://eciresults.nic.in/ConstituencywiseS244.htm?ac=4

4. Dhaurahra:-
BJP - 360357
BSP - 234682
SP - 234032
Congress - 170994
Muslims generally vote to Congress Jitin Prasad but their vote went to BSP's muslim canddiate Daud Ahmad and BJP took full advantage of it.

5. Domariyaganj:-
BJP - 298845
BSP - 195227
SP - 174778
Peace Party - 99242
Congress - 88117
Here again, Congress fielded rebel BJP MLA's wife but 294469 muslim vote got divided betweeen BSP and Peace Party's founder Mohd. Ayub and BJP won quite comfortably with just 298845 votes.
http://eciresults.nic.in/ConstituencywiseS2460.htm?ac=60

6. Ghosi:-
BJP - 379797
BSP - 233782
Quami Ekta Dal - 166443
Mokhtar Ansari may have proved his secular credential by not contesting from Varanasi but his 166443 votes proved to be as walkover for Modi's BJP in Ghosi.
http://eciresults.nic.in/ConstituencywiseS2470.htm?ac=70

7. Gonda:-
BJP - 359643
SP - 199227
BSP - 116178
Peace Party - 42744
AAP - 3358
BSP, Peace Party and AAP's muslim candidates got 361507 votes together which punctured SP's Yadav+Muslim combination and BJP took full benefit in the division of muslim votes.
http://eciresults.nic.in/ConstituencywiseS2459.htm?ac=59

8. Kheri:-
BJP - 398578
BSP - 288304
Congress - 183940
Here, all the muslims voted to Congress Zafar Ali Naqvi without observing that BSP has base vote of dalits but Congress has no base vote. Muslims failed to identify the winning candidate against BJP this time around.
http://eciresults.nic.in/ConstituencywiseS2428.htm?ac=28

9. Machhlishahr:-
BJP - 438210
BSP - 266055
SP - 191387
Congress - 36275
BSP again hoped Muslim + Dalit combination in its favour but muslims have preffered SP's muslim candidate over BSP which gives clear walkover to BJP.
http://eciresults.nic.in/ConstituencywiseS2474.htm?ac=74

10. Meerut:-
BJP - 532981
BSP - 300655
SP - 211759
Congress - 42911
Hindus have been polarised in favor of BJP but Muslim got divided between BSP, SP and Congress. Had muslims voted unitedly, BJP would have lost Meerut seat this time around.
http://eciresults.nic.in/ConstituencywiseS2410.htm?ac=10

11. Moradabad:-
BJP - 485224
SP - 397720
BSP - 160945
Here, Muslims got divided between SP and BSP muslims candidated and BJP had no trouble to win this seat with hindu polarisation.

12. Pratapgarh:-
BJP+ - 375789
BSP - 207567
Congress - 138620
Muslims were polarised in favor of Congress in awadh and east due to Kalyan Singh factor in 2009 but Muslim went to BSP's muslim candidate in Pratapgarh which resulted in Apna Dal's cake walk.
http://eciresults.nic.in/ConstituencywiseS2439.htm?ac=39

13. Rampur:-
BJP - 358616
SP - 335181
Congress - 156446
Rampur has 50% muslim population but still BJP won this seat due to the divison of muslim votes between SP and Congress.
http://eciresults.nic.in/ConstituencywiseS247.htm?ac=7

14. Saharanpur:-
BJP - 472999
Congress - 407909
BSP - 235033
SP - 52765
Here also, muslims got divided between Congress, BSP, SP and Independents.

15. Sambhal:-
BJP - 360242
SP - 355068
BSP -252640
BJP won Sambhal constituency by just 5000 odd votes as both the muslim candidates of SP and BSP got 2.5 lakh+ votes.

16. Sant Kabir Nagar:-
BJP - 348892
BSP - 250914
SP - 240169
Here, 5-6 muslim independents got good amount of muslim voted and helped BJP a lot in winning Sant Kabir Nagar seat.

17. Shrawasti:-
BJP - 345964
BSP - 260051
SP - 194890
Peace Party - 101817
Peace Party has once again did justice to his motive of clearing the way for BJP by dividing 101817 muslim votes. This rumour is commond around the political circle in UP that BJP has funded Peace Party for the division of secular votes.

18. Sitapur:-
BJP - 417546
BSP - 366519
SP - 156170
SP's Yadav+Muslim combination failed in Sitapur due to BSP's muslim candidate and BJP got this seat as bonus.

19. Sultanpur:-
BJP - 410348
BSP - 231446
SP - 228144
Sultanpur has huge dalit and muslim population but SP's muslim candidate has ensured cake walk for Varun Gandhi by making sure that Dalit + Muslim combination doesn't work in favor of BSP.

20. Aligarh:-
BJP - 514622
BSP - 227886
SP - 226284
The muslim candidate of SP has again worked wonders for BJP. AAP muslim candidate has also divided around 10000 muslim votes.

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