Exit Poll: Congress-led UPA is 13 short of majority, BJP routed

We have conducted our exit poll on each and every every constituency which has been went to poll upto 8th phase. Let us clear few things about our exit poll.

1. We have not taken any sample.

2. Our prediction is based on ground reports, caste equation and local issues.

3. Margin of error could be 7% in terms of seats.

4. Seat wise survey is more reliable than collecting some random sample in few constituencies.

Our exit poll results are totally different from the opinion polls conducted by several agencies like C-Voter, AC-Nielsen, CSDS and Hansa Research Group. According to initial ground reports, Modi's caste card has backfired him as upper castes and educated youth is appearing to be reluctant to vote for BJP. While, OBC and SC/ST vote bank is still intact with Mulayam, Mayawati, Lalu and Nitish in UP and Bihar. As per our findings UPA is heading towards simple majority by winning 259 seats and BJP-led NDA is struggling badly and heading towards most humiliated defeat in the last 20 years by bagging just 117 seats with saffron party struggling to reach three digit mark. Congress-led UPA is sweeping the states like Karnataka, Kerala, Assam, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttrakhand, Jammu & Kashmir, Goa and 7 North East states. On the other hand, BJP seems to be struggling in their strong bastions like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh. BJP who is making tall claims of winning at least 50 seats from UP, is now struggling to touch two digit mark in the biggest state of India. While, Maharashtra is witnessing nail biting contest between Congress-NCP and BJP-SS. Only states where BJP can hope for some gains are the small states like Delhi and Haryana.

State	Total Seats polled till 8th phase	BJP+	Cong+	Others	Comments
Uttar Pradesh	80	9	29	30	Congress and RLD alliance is winning Sharanpur, Ghaziabad, Amethi, Raibareilly, Pratapgarh, Mooradabad, Rampur, Barabanki, Chandauli, Jaunpur, Mirzapur, Varanasi, Dumriyaganj, Kushinagar, Gonda, Unnav, Dharauhra, Lucknow, Kanpur, Kanpur Dehat, Fulpur, Dumriyaganj, Khiri, , Aola, Baghpat, Mathura, Fathepur Sikri,Faizabad. While, BJP is winning Meerut, Bulandsher, Bareilly, Eta, Bijnore, Kaiserganj, Cairana, Nagina and Pilibhit. While, SP and BSP sharing 42 remaining seats. Read the seats wise analysis of UP here  http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/no-modi-wave-in-up-just-10-seats-for.html
Bihar	40	4	32	4	Congress-RJD alliance is winning Darbhanga, Siwan, Paschim Champaran, Purvi Champaran, Valmiki Nagar, Gopal Ganj, Madhubani, Vaishali, Jhanjharpur, Samastipur, Muzzafarpur, Ujiyarpur, Supaul, Madhepura, Arariya, Kishanganj, Katihaar, Sitamadhi, , Maharajganj, Saaran, Khagadiya, ,Sasaram, Aurangabad, Begusarai, Nawada, Buxar, Hajipur, Patliputra, Patna Sahib, Bhagalpur. While, BJP is ahead in Zamui, Sheohar, karakat, Khagariya and Gaya. Remaining 7 seats are going into JDU favour. Read the seat wise analysis of Bihar here  http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/battle-ground-bihar-lau-wave-decimated.html
West Bengal	42	0	6	36	Congress is winning Uttar Malda, Dakshin Malda, Jangipur, Royganj, Behrampur and Murshidabad. All the stars of BJP are losing their deposits in their respective seats. Mamta is heading towards sweeping the state. Left is ahead in 9 seats only.
Seemandhra	23	6	2	15	Congress is ahead in Aruku and Srikakulam. Remaining seats will be shared by YSRC and TDP.
Telangana	17	0	11	6	Congress is ahead in Karimnagar, Nizamabad, Warangal, Khammam, Adilabad, Medak, Mahbubnagar, Rangareddy, Nalgonda, Sirpur and Chennur. MIM is winning Hyderabad. While, TRS is going to get 5 seats.
Maharashtra	48	25	23		Congress-NCP is winning South Mumbai, South Cental Mumbai, North East Mumbai, North Central Mumbai, Thane, Nashik, Pune, Sholapur, Nanded, Kalyan, Bhivandi, Shirdi, Baramati, Bhandara, Nandurbar, Yavtamal,Vardha, Latur, Satara, Madha, Akola, Ratnagiri, Kolhapur. Other 25 seats are going to NDA kitty.
Madhya Pradesh	29	15	14	0	Congress is clearly ahead in Guna, Chindwara, Khandwa, Ratlam, Rewa, Satna, Ujjain, Dewas, Dhar, Mandasour and Jabalpur. Remaining 17 seats will got to BJP’s kitty. Read Madhya Pradesh's detailed analysis here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/madhya-pradesh-exit-poll-bjp-ahead-but.html
Rajasthan	25	14	6	5	Congress is winning Ajmer, Jaipur Gramin, Alwar, Dholpur, Dausa and Tonk. BSP winning Silchar, Kota seems to be heading towards AAP and three independents are also winning. Rest 14 seats are for BJP which is a huge setback for the saffron party which was claiming to bag all the 25 seats. Read seat wise projection of Rajasthan here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/bjp-has-swept-rajasthan-assembly-polls.html

Gujarat	26	15	11		Congress is looking well set to win Kheda, Anand, Sabarkantha, Jamnagar, Valsad, Amreli, Patan, Bhavnagar, Dahod, Chhota Udaipur, Junagarh. While, BJP is winning just 15 seats in Modi’s home state. Read Gujarat's full analysis here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/exit-poll-no-modi-wave-in-gujarat-and.html
Chattisgarh	11	5	6	0	Durg, Raipur, Bastar, Sarguja, Mahasumund and Bilaspur are going to Congress. While, ruling party is looking ahead on just 5 seats.

Jharkhand	14	3	8	3	Congress-JMM-RJD alliance is sweeping the state with 40% votes.
Orrisa	21	1	7	13	Congress is strong in South Orrisa and winning Behrampur, Kalahandi, Koraput, Rayagada, Gajapati, Boudh, Nuapada. BJP is struggling to open its account and BJD is winning 13 seats.
Delhi	7	3	3	1	Congress has slight edge in New Delhi, East Delhi and Chandni Chowk. Rakhi Birla may be the lone candidate who can represent Delhi from AAP. BJP is looking strong in South Delhi and has slight edge in remaining 2 seats. Read Delhi's seat wise analysis here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/no-sign-of-modi-wave-in-north-india-bjp.html
Haryana	10	3	6	1	Congress is winning Rohtak, Sirsa, Bhivani, Sonipat, Kurukshetra and Karnal. BJP is clearly ahead in Faridabad, Gurgaon and Ambala. HJC chief Kuldeep Bishnoi is losing to INLD in Hissar. Read Haryana's's seat wise analysis here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/no-sign-of-modi-wave-in-north-india-bjp.html
Punjab	13	1	10	2	Congress is ahead in Patiala, Bathinda, Gurdaspur, Amritsar, Hoshiarpur, Anand Saheb, Jalandhar, Fairdkot, Firojpur and Khadoor Sahib. Newly formed party AAP is clearly ahead in Ludhiana and Sangrur. While, SAD’s lone seat in the state is coming from Fategarh Sahib. Read Punjab's seat wise analysis here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/no-sign-of-modi-wave-in-north-india-bjp.html
Himachal Pradesh	4	1	3	0	Congress is winning Mandi, Shimla and Hamirpur. While, former Chief Minister Shanta Kumar is winning Kangra for BJP. Read HP's seat wise analysis here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/no-sign-of-modi-wave-in-north-india-bjp.html
Uttrakhand	5	2	3	0	Congress has advantage in Haridwar, Almora and Nainital. While, Tihri and Podi Garhwal are seems to be heading towards saffron party. Read Uttrakhand's seat wise analysis here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/no-sign-of-modi-wave-in-north-india-bjp.html
Jammu & Kashmir	6	1	4	1	Congress-NC is winning Udhampur, Srinagar, Baramulla and Leh Ladhak. While, Anantnang and Jammu are going to PDP and BJP resepectively.Read J& K's seat wise analysis here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/no-sign-of-modi-wave-in-north-india-bjp.html
Assam	14	2	10	2	Congress is winning Karimganj, Silchar, Autonomus District, Dhubri, Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Guwahati, Mangaldoi. Kaliabor, Jorhat. While, BJP is ahead in Tejpur and Dibugarh. Remaining two seats are going to AIUDF and AGP. Read seat wise projection of Assam here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/exit-poll-congress-sweeping-north-east.html

7 North East States	11		7	4		Congress is winning both seats of Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalya, Manipur and lone seat of Mizoram. While, left bagging both the seats of Tripura. NPP winning Nagaland seat and in Sikkim where Congress and BJP are alliance are failed to pose any threat to the regional party of Sikkim.  Read seat wise projection of North East states here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/exit-poll-congress-sweeping-north-east.html
Tamil Nadu	39	5	1	33		Congress may win Sivaganga and BJP may open its account this time around by winning Kanyakumari. Rest 33 seats will be shared by AIDMK and DMK with Jayalalitha winning majority of those seats.
Karnataka	28	2	24	2		Congress is clearly ahead in Haveri, Dharwad, Uttar kanada,Dakshin Kannada,  Koppal, Bidar, Bellary, Bijapur, ,Uduppi Chikmanglur, Gulbarga, Davengre. Tumkur, Mandya, Mysore, Chamarajnagar, Bangalore Rural, Bangalore North, Bangalore South, Bangalore Central, Chikkodi ,Kolar,  Belgaum, Chikballapur and Bagalkot, While, BJP is winning Raichur,  Chitradurga and  . Dev Goda\s JDS is ahead in Hassan and Shimoga. Read full and deepest analysis of Karnataka here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/exit-poll-congress-led-upa-heading.html
Kerala	20	0	15	5		Congress is winning Karsaraood, Kannur, Wayanand, Kozhikode, Malappuram, Ponnani, Thrissur, Chalakudy, Emakulam, Kottayam, Alappuzha, Mavellikara, Pathanam thitta, kollam and Thiruvannathpuram. While LDF winning  Vadakara, Alathur, Idukki, Attingal and Palakkad. Read full and deepest analysis of Kerala here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/exit-poll-congress-led-upa-heading.html
Goa	2	0	2			Congress winning both the seats of Goa i.e North Goa and South Goa due to the minority polarisation in favor of congress.
Union Territories	6	0	6	0		Conress is sweeping the UTs i.s Andaman & Nicobar, Lakshdweep, Chandigarh, Dadar & Nagar Haweli, Daman & Diu and Pondicherry. Read seat wise analysis of UTs here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/clean-sweep-for-congress-in-union.html
Total	510	117	259	150

17 possible victims of Modi wave

Modi wave sweeping Uttar Pradesh, Modi aandhi sweeping India, Modi tsunmai sweeping the whole universe. You must be feeling bored by hearing similar headlines in our media. But ground reality is totally different and BJP is heading towards embarrassing defeat with all its top leadership losing their respective seats. We are going to analyse all those seats from where BJP heavyweights are finding themselves in spot of bother. This victim list includes one current CM, three former CM, BJP's national president and former union ministers.

1. Narendra Modi: Modi himself is losing his Varanasi seat. You can yourself make out that he himself is hell scared and he is going to spend maximum time in Varanasi from now onwards. Adding to that, 1 lakh RSS cadre is in Kashi from all over the India. With 3.5 lakh muslims and 1.5 lakh bhumiar votes going to Congress candidate Ajay Rai, Modi should not be concerned about leaving Vadodra or Varanasi. Arvind Kejriwal is also making inroads into urban youth and kurmi votes and making things more difficult for BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate.

2. Murali Manohar Joshi: Former Union Minister and BJP's candidate Murali Manohar Joshi's rift with Modi is not a hidden fact now. In fact, if ground reports are to be believed then Modi camp has tried its best to ensure Joshi's defeat against Coal Minister Shri Prakash Jaiswal.

3. Rajnath Singh: BJP's president Rajnath Singh is all set to face humiliating defeat from Nawab city Lucknow. His fancy dress competition amongst muslim gurus didn't help his cause as it sent a wrong signal to the hardcore BJP vote bank. As ansaris openly supported Rita Bahuguna Joshi, things became easier for her with 1.5 lakh pahadis and 4 lakh brahmin on this VIP seat. As per the ground reports, non jatav dalits have also voted for Congress.

4. Varun Gandhi: BJP's fire brand leader Varun Gandhi may end up at 3rd spot as dalit and muslim combination clearly helping BSP who won all the five assmebly seats in this constituency which also sent Varun Gandhi's father Sanjay Gandhi to the Parliament.

5. Arun Jaitley: BJP's leader of opposition in Raja Sabha, Arun Jaitley is not even in the race from Amritsar as former Chief Minister Amrinder Singh is in direct contest with AAP. Jaitley's debut election is proving to be a nightmare for him.

6. Kalraj Mishra: He is an another heavyweight of BJP from Uttar Pradesh. With SP looking miles ahead, another big leader of saffron party is set to be blown away in Modi tsunami.

7. Kuldeep Bishnoi: Modi tsunami doesn't not only hit BJP leaders but it has reached NDA also. HJC chief is losing his own seat from Hissar against INLD.

8. Ram Vilas Paswan: He snubbed UPA and joined the hands with BJP with the hope of riding on Modi wave but he can't prevent himself from losing for the second time in a row from Hajipur. With, high % of Yadavs and Muslims in the constituency, Paswan need some mircale to stop Congress winning this seat.

9. Shatrughan Sinha: Bihar babu's winning streak may be stopped this time by the bhojpuri actor of Congress. Yadav and Muslims are in high numbers in Patna Sahib which is going in Congress favor. However, Shatrughan has strong support base amongst bhumiars but JDU has also fielded bhumiar candidate to ensure the split in bhumiar votes. As if caste equation was not enough to cause troubles for Sinha, news is floating around that Modi and Ravi Shankar Prasad camp also doesn't want Shatrughan Sinha in 16th parliament.

10. Shanawaz Hussain: BJP's big muslim face Shanawaz is also in serious trouble from Bhagalpur as he won't get minority votes this time around because of no JDU with NDA.

11. Harsimrat Kaur: Prakash Singh Badal's daughter in law Harsimrat is facing a heat against Badal's nephew Manpreet Singh Badal from Bathinda. Manpreet has support from Congress and ground reports predicting leads for him in five assembly segments of Bathinda. So, Harsimrat is another victim of Modi wave which is reality exists but as an anti modi wave, not a pro one.

12. BS Yedurappa: BJP brought him back with the hope of getting 17% lingyat votes back by compromising the image of anti corruption crusader. But getting lingyat votes is a distant thing, Yeddy himself losing his seat from Shimoga as  Dr Rajkumar's daughter in law emerging as a giant killer.

13. Anurag Thakur: Former Chief Minister's son and BJP's youth wing president Anurag Thakur is finding very difficult to reach parliament this time around. With AAP making inroads into BJP's vote bank, Congress is looking clearly ahead in Hamirpur. Modi's "Ye Dil Maange More" speech has also added worries for Thakur who is also the vice president of BCCI.

14. Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank: Former Uttrakhand Chief Minister and accused of Kumbh Ghotala Nishank also need some miracle to defeat Uttrakhand CM Harish Rawat's wife from Haridwar. Nishnak is brahmin and as a result thakur which are 60% in this high profile constituency are polarising towards Rawat.

15. VC Khanduri: He is another former Chief Minister who also lost his assembly seat during his CM tenure is in very tough contest against Congress Harak Singh Rawat and it is touch and go scenario in Podi Garhwal.

16. Ananth Kumar: BJP's five time MP Ananth Kumar is also losing against Aadhar man Nandan Nilekani from Bangalore South.

17. Rudy: Bihar's former Chief Minister Rabri Devi is all set to make a winning lok sabha debut against former Union Minister Rudy from Saran.