Huge setback awaits BJP in Meerut and Nagina

In our Uttar Pradesh's Exit Poll, we have predicted Meerut and Nagina seats to BJP but saffron party is getting huge setback from these constituencies as per ground reports. We have talked to the Dainik Hindustan editor Suryakant Dwivedi, he believes that BJP's Rajendra Agarwal is heading towards big defeat against BSP's Haji Shahid Akhlaq. Repolling in three booth of Muzzafarnagar was held yesterday and around 100% voting was recorded in these muslim dominated booths. This also tells you the larger picture of UP that how muslims have voted heavily to ensure Modi's defeat. You can read our Uttar Pradesh's Exit Poll here http://idharudhar24x7.blogspot.in/2014/05/no-modi-wave-in-up-just-10-seats-for.html

Factors scripting big defeat for BJP in Meerut

1.	Around 8-8 lakh muslims and hindus are in Meerut-Hapur constituency. Turnout in muslim areas is 60% i.e 480000 voted but in hindu areas, only 40% turnout was recorded i.e just 320000 votes.
2.	SP getting around 1.5 lakh muslims votes and BSP around 2.5 lakhs. BSP also got around 1.5 lakh votes of dalits which takes BSP’s total vote to 4 lakh. This vote is already higher than the total polling in hindu areas.
3.	AAP and Congress has also made inroads into BJP’s vote bank. AAP got around 30000 votes and Congress can easily reach 1 lakh votes as they got the good support from rural areas, jaats and brahmins.

Why BJP is losing Nagina?

Nagina is muslim dominated seat where SP has clear edge.

BJP’s track record is poor in reserved seats.

BJP was on 3rd spot in 2009 despite their alliance with RLD.