Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Predict and win! Be a psephologist

Predict and Win! We are inviting all our readers to send their prediction on my email id - @divvejoshi@gmail.com. The person who will get it right on 16th may with +-20 seats, name of that person will be published on the description of our blog.

I am posting few of such predictions here.

Bharat's prediction
NDA - 278
UPA - 104
Others - 161

Sahil's prediction
NDA - 266
UPA - 116
Others - 160

Swamy's prediction
NDA - 264
UPA - 120
Others - 159

Trivedi Ji's prediction
NDA - 307

Manoj Kedia's prediction
NDA - 250
Congress - 75

Gopal's prediction
BJP - 200
Congress - 90

Tarique S. Chunawala's prediction
NDA -  205-224
UPA - 155

270-Congress ( UPA ) 151-Bjp (.NDA ) 122-other

Mathew Simon's prediction
NDA - 276
UPA - 91

Jithu Thomas prediction
J and K----udhampur and ladakh(2)

HP---shimla and mandi(2)

uttarakhand--Nainital(1)

Punjab---7-8(even jaitly will lose...sad will only most probably carry seats for the nda)

Rajastan---4-5(ajmer,jhunjhunu,sikar,2 others from the eastern trbal and minority dominated belt...npp's weakening influence and vote katua factor has now made the locals realize that it all helped the bjp...so dalits, meenas and anti modi minorities will help us win some seats down there)

Gujarat---4-5(4 in central gujarat and 1-2 in north gujarat...valsad seat of south gujarat will witness some fight too)

Maharashtra---14(bjp-ss is fighting hard against each other in north maharashtra and mumbai region....we are 
ahead in western maharashtra as well)

Karnataka---16-18(we are ahead everywhere except mumbai karnataka where the bjp is slightly ahead)

Kerala---10-12(udf ahead evrywhere except some pockets)

tamil nadu---O-1(either in the west or in the south)

AP---9-12(nothing in seemandra while congress will get 9-12 in telengana.i am afraid if the tdp will benefit from the pro telengana vote division in seats like malkajgiri ,secunderabad and khammam)

Odisha---6-7(congress will retain back our southern odisha bastion and some other rural seats towards the north coast)

West Bengal---4-5 (malda dakshin,berhampur,murshidabad,roygunj and jangipur/malda uttar)

Assam---8-10(opposition is far far behind)

North east--6-7(2 in manipur,1-2 in meghalaya, 1 in mizoram and 2 in arunachal)
Bihar---3-4(sasaram, kishanganj,aurangabad/supaul/gopalganj/nawada)
Uttar pradesh---12-13(moradabad, rampur, baraily/saharanpur in west Up and rae bareli, amethi,unnao, pratapgarh,gonda and barabanki in central UP and one in bundhelkhand and faizabad, kushinagar, allahabad/phulpur/jaunpur/domariaganj /robertsganj in east UP)

Haryana---6-7(rohtak,kurukshetra,sirsa,faridabad,bhiwani,sonepat and panipat)

Delhi--1-2(east delhi and maybe new delhi)

Goa--1 (south goa with a reduced margin.)

MP--5-7(chindwara,guna, arun yadav's ,ajay singh's and kantilal from ratlam are sure seats)

Chattisgarh--3-4 bastar(karma's son),mahasamund(jogi),raigarh/kanker,korba/Sarguja)

Jharkhand---4

UTs--4-5

Nitya Nand Singh's prediction
I will write my prediction state wise...UP - 45-50,BIH- 19-24,GUJ- 22-25,RAJ - 21-23,MP- 23-26,CHG- 8-10, HAR- 6-7,PUN-2,HP- 3,JK - 2,JHAR- 9-12,ODISHA- 5,WB- 2,ASSAM-5-6,ARUN- 2,ANDRA-4,TN-2,KAR-14,MH-19-21..

Simon, Doha, Qatar
State /UT
Total seats
BJP +
Congress +
Arunachal Pradesh
2
-
2
Andaman
1
1
-
Assam
14
6
6
Bihar
40
23
14
Chandigarh
1
1
-
Delhi
7
6
-
Goa
2
1
1
Haryana
10
8
2
Jharkhand
14
10
4
Jammu Kashmir
6
1
3
Karnataka
28
15
09
Kerala
20
-
10
Lakshadeep
1
-
1
Madhya pradesh
29
27
2
Maharashtra
48
32
16
Manipur
2
-
2
Meghalaya
2
-
1
Mizoram
1
-
1
Nagaland
1
-
-
Orissa
21
6
1
Rajasthan
25
23
1
Sikkim
1
-
-
Tripura
2
-
-
Uttar Pradesh
80
46
4
Tamil Nadu
39
5
-
Pondicherry
1
-
-
Telengana
17
2
4
Punjab
13
8
3
Guajarat
26
24
2
West Bengal
42
3
2
Daman Diu
1
1
-
Andhra
25
17
0
Dader Haveli
1
1
-
Himachal Pradesh
4
4
-
UttaraKhand
5
5
-
TOTAL
543
276
91


Others : 176
                                          Vijay Francis    






UPA NDA Others
Seemandhra 25 1 12 12
Telengana 17 9 2 6
Arunachal 2 2 0 0
Assam 14 10 2 2
Bihar 40 28 8 4
Goa 2 1 1 0
Gujarat 26 7 19 0
Haryana 10 4 4 2
HP 4 3 1 0
J&K 6 4 1 1
Karnataka 28 18 8 2
Kerala 20 12 0 8
MP 29 8 21 0
Maharashtra 48 22 26 0
Manipur 2 1 0 1
Meghalaya 2 2 0 0
Mizoram 1 1 0 0
Nagaland 1 0 0 1
Orissa 21 5 4 12
Punjab 13 9 3 1
Rajasthan 25 7 17 1
Sikkim 1 0 0 1
TN + Pondicherry 40 4 5 31
Tripura 2 0 0 2
UP 80 15 38 27
WB 42 5 3 34
Chattisgarh 11 4 6 1
Jharkand 14 6 5 3
Uttarkhand 5 2 3 0
A&N 1 1 0 0
Chandigarh 1 1 0 0
D&N 1 0 1 0
D&D 1 1 0 0
Delhi 7 1 3 3
Laks 1 1 0 0
Total 543 195 193 155

Vijaya Ragwan
State /UT Total seats BJP + Congress + Others
Arunachal Pradesh 2 0 2 0
Andaman 1 1 0 0
Assam 14 1 13 0
Bihar 40 8 24 8
Chandigarh 1 0 1 0
Delhi 7 6 0 1
Goa 2 1 1 0
Haryana 10 7 3 0
Jharkhand 14 9 5 0
Jammu Kashmir 6 1 3 2
Karnataka 28 11 15 2
Kerala 20 0 14 6
Lakshadeep 1 0 1 0
Madhya pradesh 29 20 9 0
Maharashtra 48 27 18 3
Manipur 2 0 2 0
Meghalaya 2 0 2 0
Mizoram 1 0 1 0
Nagaland 1 0 0 1
Orissa 21 2 3 16
Rajasthan 25 20 5 0
Sikkim 1 0 0 1
Tripura 2 0 0 2
Uttar Pradesh 80 23 14 43
Tamil Nadu 39 4 0 35
Pondicherry 1 0 1 0
Telengana 17 2 7 8
Punjab 13 5 8 0
Guajarat 26 21 5 0
West Bengal 42 2 5 35
Daman Diu 1 1 0 0
Andhra 25 15 0 10
Dader Haveli 1 1 - 0
Himachal Pradesh 4 2 2 0
UttaraKhand 5 3 2 0
Chattisgarh 11 7 4 0
TOTAL 543 200 170 173

Srikanth GK Hedge
State /UT
Total seats
BJP +
Congress +
Arunachal Pradesh
2
1
1
Andaman
1
1
-
Assam
14
3
10
Bihar
40
20
20
Chandigarh
1
1
-
Delhi
7
4
1
Goa
2
1
1
Haryana
10
5
5
Jharkhand
14
8
4
Jammu Kashmir
6
1
3
Karnataka
28
12
15
Kerala
20
-
10
Lakshadeep
1
-
1
Madhya pradesh
29
20
9
Maharashtra
48
25
23
Manipur
2
-
2
Meghalaya
2
-
1
Mizoram
1
-
1
Nagaland
1
-
-
Orissa
21
4
4
Rajasthan
25
16
6
Sikkim
1
-
-
Tripura
2
-
-
Uttar Pradesh
80
38
15
Tamil Nadu
39
5
1
Pondicherry
1
-
-
Telengana
17
2
5
Punjab
13
4
9
Guajarat
26
21
5
West Bengal
42
3
3
Daman Diu
1
1
-
Andhra
25
13
0
Dader Haveli
1
1
-
Himachal Pradesh
4
2
2
UttaraKhand
5
4
1
TOTAL
543
213
152


Joseph Devassy

Chances of a BJP gov forming under Shri Narendra Modi.

Gujarat -25,Rajasthan-25,MP-25,Bihar-30,UP-50,AP-15,Karnataka-20,Maharashtra-30,Orissa-10,Punjab-10,Chattisgarh-10,Jharkhand-10,Delhi-05,Uttarakhand-05,Haryana-05

These are the required no of seats the BJP would require if they would want to form their own gov after 16 Mayunder the leadership of Narendra Modi. One look and it looks practically impossible. I am not a full time psehologist but I do undertake it as a part time habit and hobby for time pass.The reason I feel it is impossible is because it is highly improbable any party would win close to 95% of the seats in a state. In the post I would only elaborate on the seats that the BJP I think would lose in these stronghold areas

01) Gujarat
Sabarkantha, Banaskantha, Anand, Patan, Dahod, Also expect tough fights in Panchmahal, Amreli , Kheda, Chota Udaipur, Rajkot and Surendranagar. So tally at most 20 or 21.

02 ) Rajasthan
Karul Dholpur, Jaipur Rural, Barmer, Sikar . Also expect tough fights in Jhunjhunu, Nagaur, Udaipur , Bhartpur, Dausa. So tally utmost at most 20 or 21.

03) MP
Guna, Sidhi , Balaghat , Gwalior , Dhar, Satna, Chindwara . Also expect tough fights in Morena , Rewa ,Bhind , Mandla , Sagar , Damoh, Shahdol. So tally at most 22 or 23.

04) Chattisgarh
Surguja , Korba , Kanker , Bastar , Bilaspur. Also expect a tough fight in Mahasamund, Rajnandgaon.So tally at most 05 or 06. 

05) Delhi
East Delhi , West Delhi. Also expect tough fight in North East Delhi, Chandni Chowk and New Delhi. So tally at most 02 or 03

06) Karnataka 
Apart from Haveri , Bellary , Raichur , Shimoga , Chitradurga , Chikodi and one Bangalore Seat for BJP. Its looks like 20 seats plus for the Congress. So tally atmost 07 or 08 seats

07) Punjab
Apart from Sangrur. Ludhiana , Bhathinda, Firozpur , Amritsar and Chandigarh , Congress expected to win atleast 08 seats plus . So tally atmost 04 or 05 seats


08) Bihar
Apart from Zamui, Sheohar , Karakat , Buxar , Hajipur , Gaya , Purvi Champaran, Paschmi Champaran, Khagariya , Patna Sahib for BJP, and very tough fights in 04 other seats It looks like 20 seats plus for RJD/Cong combine and 08 for JDU. So tally at most 13 or 14 seats

09) Uttarakhand

Haridwar ,Almora and tough fight on Nainital seat. So tally at most 02 or 03 seats

10) Haryana
Rohtak, Bhivani, Sonepat and tough fights in Sirsa ,Karnal , Faridabad. So tally at most 06 seats

11) UP
Meerut , Sahranpur ,Mooradabad, Rampur , Dharauhra , Gonda. , Phulpur , Jaunpur , Amethi , Rae Barelli , Kushinagar, Baghpat, Mathura and 30 seats totalling to SP n BSP .So BJP tally atmost 35 or 36 seats

12) AP- Seemandhra
Araku, Srikakulam, & 11 seats to the YSRCP. So tally at most 12 or 13 seats.

13) AP- Telangana
Karimnagar, Nizamabad, Warangal, Khammam, Adilabad, Rangareddy, Nalgonda & TRS 06 seats. So Tally at most 03 or 04 seats.

14) Orissa
Behrampur, Kalhandi,Kohraput, Gajapati, & BJD winning 12 seats. So tally atmost 04 or 05.

15) Maharashtra
South Mumbai, South Cental Mumbai, , North Central Mumbai, Thane, Nashik, Pune, Sholapur, Nanded, Kalyan, Bhivandi, Baramati, Bhandara, , Yavtamal, Latur, Satara, Madha, Kolhapur.and tough fights in 06 more seats. So tally at most 28 or 29 seats.

16) Assam 
Apart from Tezpur, Barpeta n Dibrugarh, Congress expected to win atleast 09 seats here. So tally 02 or 03 seats

17) Jharkhand
NDA tally at most 07 or 08 here

18) HP 
NDA tally at most 01 or 02 here

19) JK
NDA tally at most 02 here.

20) Kerala
Congress expected to win 08 seats plus tough fights in 05 more. Tally 0 for NDA here

21)Tamil Nadu 
Apart from Coimbatore , and 06 seats Villupurma, Salem,Dharmapuri,Erode, Virudhnagar and Erode of allies ,. DMK n AIADMK expected to share 33 seats in ratio of 2:1 for AIADMK. Tally atmost 03 or 04 seats .

So my Friends again I repeat even tho I may fall flat on my face repeatedly

For BJP- Best come best 180 seats. Worst come worst 160 seats. Average mean 175

For Congress- Best come best 160 seats. Worst come worst 140 seats. Average mean 150

For NDA allies - Best come best 45 seats. Worst come worst 35 seats. Average mean 40

For UPA allies- Best come best 25 seats. Worst come worst 15 seats. Average mean 20

For Third Front- Best come best 55 seats. Worst come worst 45 seats. Average mean 50

For All others- Best come best 120 seats. Worst come worst 100 seats. Average mean 110

Cong BJP Others UPAAllies NDAAllies 3rdFront TTL Needed 
AP 42 9 2 15(YRSCP) 1(MIM) 15(TDP) 11 20
Arunachal 2 2 0 2
0 0
Assam 14 10 3 1(AUDF) 0 13 5
0 0
Bihar 40 7 12 11(JDU) 9(RJD) 1(LJP) 19 30
Goa 2 1 1 2
Gujarat 26 7 19 26 25
Haryana 10 4 4 2(HJC) 8 5
HP 4 2 1 1(IND) 3
JK 6 2 2 2(NC) 4
Karnataka 28 18 8 2(JDS) 26 20
Kerala 20 11 0 1(IUML) 8(LEFT) 11
MP 29 7 22 29 25
Maharashtra 48 14 17 1(AAP) 4(NCP) 12(SS,RPI
SSS)
31 30
Manipur 2 2 0 2
Meghalaya 2 1 0 1(NPP) 1
Mizoram 1 1 0 1
Nagaland 1 1 0 1
Orissa 21 6 2 13(BJD) 8 5
Punjab 13 8 3 2(SAD) 11 10
Rajasthan 25 4 19 2(IND) 23 25
Sikkim 1 0 0 1(SDF) 0
TN 39 0 2 24(AIADMK) 4(DMDK,
PMK,MDMK)
09(DMK) 2
UP 80 9 36 13(BSP) 3(RLD) 2(AD) 17(SP) 45 45
WB 42 5 1 25(TMC) 11(LEFT) 6
Chattisgarh 11 5 6 11 10
Jharkhand 14 6 8 14 10
Uttarakand 5 2 3 5 5
Andaman 1 0 0 1(IND) 0
CDG 1 1 0 1
Daman/Dadra 2 1 1 2
Delhi 7 2 3 2(AAP) 5 5
Laks/Pudu 2 1 1(NRC) 1
Tripura 2 0 2(LEFT) 0
543 149 175 110 20 40 49 324 275
Range 140-160 160-180 100-120 15-25 35-45 45-55

13 comments:

  1. think something wrong with the excel is NDA-104 or 278....for upa.. please explain.. i think there is some typo

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As per you Congress will form the next government at the centre after May 16....Can I trust that prediction of urs completely brother?

      Delete
    2. Where you based brother? time zones are completely different from India where I am based(time here is 2:02 am on 14 th May .....people are not believing generally that congress will actually form the government at the centre..

      Delete
  2. as per ur blogs-u divye u suggest congress heading for victory....please confirm that..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. eggactly sir.. bjp has serious xistence on 225 seats and cong has existence in every state.. even if they vl win 4 from every state.. they vl get 120

      Delete
    2. can i have ur phone number brother?Would like to talk to you..i am based in delhi..

      Delete
  3. well done Joseph.. very impressive!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Joseph, I don't expect Ajit Jogi to lose from Mahasamund. It's a sure win seat for congress.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Divye Joshi Bhai, C Joseph here i had put in a statewise , partywise prediction on excel sheet as an attachement on the email. Pls put it up if u can. That will give u a more clearer picture.

    ReplyDelete

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