Madhya Pradesh Exit Poll: BJP ahead but Congress not far behind

Madhya Pradesh is another state where BJP is hoping to make maximum gains after making hat-trick in recently held assembly polls. However, I am not seeing BJP sweeping the state but BJP still emerge as single largest party with 15 seats out of 29. Comparatively low polling can help Congress as already 33% out of total 71% polled during assembly polls are angry with Shivraj Singh Chauhan's government. So, a total of 1.30 cr anti BJP voters are there in MP. Now, around 63% turnout recorded in Azab Gazab Madhya Pradesh. Assuming, anti BJP voters did come out to vote due to bad projections of Congress. The Congress still has 1.2 cr solid votes. BJP had 1.56 cr votes during 2013 assembly polls. Around 33 lakh votes have been polled less. 75% of them would be BJP votes. This would imply less difference between Congress and BJP(almost from 36 lakhs to 13 lakhs). Not even Congress leaders thought that their party would win 12 seats from MP in 20009.

Constituency	BJP	Congress	Others	Close seats	Comments
Morena	1				BJP is looking ahead in Morena.
Bhind	1				BJP has clear edge over Congress.
Gwalior		1			Congress has upper hand over BJP in Gwalior
Guna		1			Jyotiraditya Scindia has winning edge in Guna.
Sagar		1			Congress is winning this seat.
Tikamgarh	1				BJP is clearly ahead in Tikamgarh.
Damoh	1				BJP is not facing any serious challenge from Congress.
Khajuraho		1			Congress has winning edge over BJP.

Satna		1			Close contest with Congress having upper hand over BJP.
Rewa		1			Congress is clearly ahead of BJP.
Sidhi	1				BJP is looking all set to win this seat.
Shahdol	1				BJP has slight edge over Congress.
Jabalpur				1	Close contest between Congress and BJP and it could be anybody’s seat.
Mandla		1			Congress has clear edge over BJP.
Balaghat	1				BJP has advantage over Congress.
Chhindwara		1			Cake Walk for Union Minister Kamal Nath.
Hoshangabad	1				BJP is winning this seat hands down.
Vidisha	1				It’s not a cake walk for leader of opposition in lok sabha this time as Sushma Swaraj facing a heat against Digvijay Singh’s brother Laxman Singh. However, I will still put my money on Sushma’s less margin victory.
Bhopal	1				BJP’s Rajendra Saja is all set to win his seat.

Rajgarh	1				BJP has clear edge over Congress.
Dewas		1			Congress enjoying winning edge over BJP.
Ujjain		1			Congress is favourite to win religious city Ujjain.
Mandasaur		1			Congress Meenakshi Natrajan is facing tough contest this time around but she still has winning edge over her opponent.
Ratlam	1				BJP  is clearly ahead of Congress in Ratlam Lok Sabha constituency.
Dhar		1			Dhar is looking safe seat for Congress.

Indore	1				BJP’s Sumitra Mahajan looking unstoppable this time around also and only some miracle can stop her winning streak from Indore which is also known as Mini Mumbai.
Khargone	1				BJP has advantage over Congress.
Khandwa		1			Congress has winning edge against arch rivals BJP.
Betul	1				Betul is going to BJP.

Total

15

13

1